ESL Pro League Season 17 is heading into the playoffs, and there are some surprising matchups. Beginning with the round of 16, several of the best CS:GO teams in the world find themselves fighting for their tournament lives early on.

Brace for G2’s return. | Credit: Adela Sznajder – \u00a9 ESL

On paper, NAVI came into their group as favorites to qualify for the Quarter-Finals. Those plans were scuppered on day one, a defeat to forZe condemning the team to a Mid Bracket Run. Carried through Group D by s1mple’s brilliance, performances improved, settling for a third-place finish. Even b1t saw a return to form, but npl’s shaky performances even against Tier-2 teams remain a lingering concern for the tournament ahead.

00NATION’s run to the playoffs came through the Lower Bracket, where they defeated Rooster, Grayhound, and NIP. The initial two matches were nothing to write home about, but the victory of NIP was a sign there’s life in the legend coldzera yet, who played like it was 2017 all over again to send the Ninjas packing.

NAVI have likely played through their worst form this tournament, and should have too much for 00NATION. The Brazilians will strike a blow, but it’s unlikely they find enough to beat the Ukrainian roster.

Prediction: NAVI 2-1 00NATION

Since FURIA made the Semi-Finals of the IEM Rio Major 2022, the Brazilians have struggled to make an impact on the server. The team are lucky to have KSCERATO, who has shown himself as one of the best riflers on the planet. Other than that, FURIA had a tough time in Group C, scraping through the Mid Bracket of a group where they should have been comfortably top two.

Fnatic had a mostly-unremarkable run, defeating MIBR, Eternal Fire (twice!) and IHC en route to the playoffs. There were a few standout moments for Fnatic that shows they can still compete. They became the first team to defeat G2 on Nuke since HooXi’s arrival, a 16-4 domination that ended their 16-match Nuke streak. As well as this, KRIMZ provided potentially the play of the tournament with one of the craziest spray transfers and last-second defuses seen in CS:GO for a while.

In a group with Cloud9, Outsiders, and G2, making the playoffs at all is a huge achievement from Fnatic.

We think Fnatic have shown just a little bit more than FURIA in ESL Pro League Season 17. It’ll be tight, but KRIMZ and co should pull through.

Prediction: FURIA 1-2 Fnatic

In a group featuring FaZe, Vitality, OG, and NIP, paiN Gaming did well to qualify in third. They were made to work for their wins, and showed a fight and tenacity that offers hope for this tie. Looking at the paiN Gaming roster, there are no bonafide stars, yet there’s no clear weak link. Realistically, they remain a Tier-2 team, and playing at a higher level could expose that.

Liquid’s start to the tournament was nothing short of disastrous, in a 2-0 loss to Rare Atom. YEKINDAR blamed their preparation for ESL Pro League Season 17. Eventually falling to the Lower Bracket, Liquid pulled through in a convincing 2-0 over Astralis. That seems to be the story of Liquid, time and again. A poor start, with form steadily increasing over the course of a tournament. There were definite signs of improvement in the later games, and we can’t see paiN Gaming standing in the way of that.

Liquid’s presence in Group D should help them, as they’ve had time to play through their rusty patch without much of a break. There’s too much individual quality at Liquid to look past them in this tie.

Prediction: paiN Gaming 0-2 Team Liquid

Pre-tournament, you’d have been laughed out of the room for suggesting G2 would be anywhere near the Round of 16. Despite the strength of Group A, their recent IEM Katowice 2023 victory had G2 looking unbeatable and clear favorites for the Quarter-Finals. A Cloud9 resurgence and Outsiders’ consistency meant G2 eventually faced MIBR and Fnatic in the Mid Bracket. They saw it through, but there were brief moments where they looked mortal. Competing in Group A means that they’ve had time to rest and regroup, and it could be a blessing and a curse. They’ve had time to reevaluate their strategies, but they could also suffer from some rust at first.

Movistar Riders eeked through the Lower Bracket, beating Complexity, SAW, and BIG on the way. It wasn’t a poor performance in Group B, but G2 are another level to teams they’ve faced so far. When faced with Heroic, Movistar Riders crumbled 2-0, and we can’t see a route to them taking two maps here.

This matchup has a clear winner in G2, but their long break could allow Movistar Riders to snatch a map.

Prediction: G2 2-1 Movistar Riders

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