Wildfire Smoke Forecast

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Wildfire Smoke Forecast

Posted by - Latinos MediaSyndication -

on - May 18, 2023 -

Filed in - Weather -

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As an experiment, let's do a wildfire smoke forecast for Washington State, including the potential impacts at the surface.

The satellite image this morning at 6:31 AM was scary, with the southern smoke boundary just south of Olympia. Low clouds were along the coast and some higher convective clouds were over Idaho.

Look closely and you can see the shadows of the Idaho clouds on the smoke plume.

The smoke appears most opaque in the early morning and evening when the sun angles are low. Roughly 3 hours later than the above picture the smoke is more transparent; if you look carefully the southern boundary of the smoke is starting to shift northward.

It is critical to know the three-dimensionality of the smoke and Puget Sound Clean Air Agency ceilometer reveals the vertical structure (see plot below for the ceilometer at Marysville). (see below)

Nearly all the smoke is above 2000 meters...which is good. Reduces the probability of mixing smoke to near sea level (e.g., to the large population of the Puget Sound region).

Here is the latest PurpleAir air quality map. Terrible air quality to the west of the Rockies. Some smoky air is mixing down in and near higher terrain over Washington and southwest BC, but the particulate levels are modest.

Smoke Prediction

Now the good news for Washington State. The winds are switching to more southerly and southwesterly, which should move the smoke away from us.

The predicted winds at 700 hPa (about 3000 meters or 10,000 ft) this morning at 11 AM are southerly (from the south) over western Oregon and Washington and southwesterly over southern BC (see below).

Such winds will tend to move the smoke northward. And the winds at the same level tomorrow morning are even more favorable for pushing the elevated smoke away.

A profound cool-down is predicted starting Sunday, so get your sweaters ready.

____________________

Interested in a free lecture at the UW on How We Will Stop Fossil Fuels From Causing Global Warming by Oxford University Professor Myles Allen? It will take place at 7 PM May 25 at UW's Kane Hall and you can get more info and sign up below. Professor Allen is a very good speaker and internationally well known; the talk will probably fill quickly so make your reservation soon if you want to go.

https://events.uw.edu/event/9ba197b2-74b5-4cc1-b51a-356ac8a68fa6/summary

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