Disclaimer: This is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.
The following is my outlook forecast for the upcoming 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 11– 14
TOTAL HURRICANES : 5 – 6
MAJOR HURRICANES: 2 – 3
AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES: 7
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
SEASON TOTALS
NAMED STORMS: 0
HURRICANES: 0
MAJOR HURRICANES: 0
The following are the storm names for the 2023 hurricane season. As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:
Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harold Idalia Jose Katia
Lee Margot Nigel Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney
The following synopsis will be a “quickcast” this evening.
The NHC has taken an interest in the area of “disturbed” weather in the GOMEX. The NHC has designated a 20% probability for development over the next 7 days.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO
Satellite imagery indicates a rather disorganized area this evening. This area of disturbed weather is associated mainly with a trof of low pressure, and mainly a mid level feature based on the current vorticity map from CIMSS. Analysis of the latest ASCAT imagery did not indcate a surface circulation.
WEATHERNERDS SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
CIMSS 500 MB VORTICITY
While water vapor imagery did not indicate entrainment of very dry air, moisture was limited.
The area is currently under 25 – 30 knots of shear, and the forecast calls for wind shear to remain high over the projected path of this system. The ECMWF MSLP anomalies forecast tends to indicate this remains a large trof of lower pressure over the next few days, and the area should eventually move toward the ENE, eventually (supposedly) becoming an area of weak low pressure after crossing the Florida Peninsula. Analysis of the 200 mb streamline map indicates upper level winds are forecast to remain zonal. Based on this analysis, I do not believe this will develop into anything tropical. Although the phase evolution diagram indicates this may transition to shallow warm core near its end, I have doubts about that at the moment.
ECMWF WIND SHEAR FORECAST AND MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST
I will continue to monitor this situation over the next 72 – 96 hours for any significant changes, and will update if necessary. Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
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