ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.  Keep in mind, if a forecast doesn’t exactly pan out, remember, the atmosphere is fluid in motion.  When models are being analyzed, that’s just one run, and I have to go with what is presented.  After that, models don’t update again for another 4 – 6 hours, so, what happens between that time is unknown, and forecast conditions can change slightly, to greatly.  This will have an effect on my actual forecast.  Unless otherwise noted, satellite imagery is provided through Weathernerds.org

The following is my outlook forecast for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14– 16
TOTAL HURRICANES :        5 – 7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3 – 4

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

SEASON TOTALS:
NAMED STORMS:          19
HURRICANES:                 7
MAJOR HURRICANES:  3

The following are the storm names for the 2023 hurricane season.  As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:

Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harold Idalia Jose Katia
Lee Margot Nigel Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney

Greetings everyone! 
As a reminder, when forecasting tropical systems, if there are numerous systems to deal with, I always update on the systems that may present an impact or threat to either the U. S. or the Caribbean islands.  Anything far out in the Atlantic or something that may re-curve, take a lower priority as there is more time to deal with them.  Unless we have a system threatening any area, the forecast office will be closed on the weekends.

Analysis of  the ECMWF and GFS global models still indicate some type of development coming out of the Caribbean during the next 5 days.  Current satellite imagery does not indicate anything at the moment.  Right now, I’m unsure how “tropical” this low may become, as the setup based on analysis of MSLP anomalies maps show a complex system.  The area in the Caribbean comes up through central America from the Central American Gyre, noted in the graphic.  At the same time, beginning possibly later tonight, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop in the NW GOMEX and work its way east.  Based on satellite imagery, this may be trying to occur as I type this synopsis.  This should remain a non named low.  As we get further into the period at around 72 – 78 hours, when both the ECMWF and GFS indicate the development in the Caribbean, both lows seem to merge, or form one very broad area of low pressure.  The low from the Gulf appears later to “split” from the large area, and eventually develop a Nor’easter off the NEUS / New England coast with the GFS being a little quicker indicating this.  This will be interesting, as the one very favorable element in the forecast is very strong divergence aloft, based on analysis of CHI 200 anomalies forecast maps during the next 5 days.

The NHC has designated a MEDIUM (60%) probability of cyclone formation.  The ECMWF EPS cyclone probability forecast indicates a 90 – 95% probability of Tropical Depression development.
GOMEX AND CARIBBEAN SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY




CENTRAL AMERICA 850 MB FORECAST MAP SHOWING CAG

ECMWF EPS AND GFS, CHI200 ANOMALIES FORECAST (INDICATES DIVERGENT UPPER PATTERN)

NHC 7 DAY GTWO

ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY (TROPICAL DEPRESSION)

Based on surface wind forecast analysis, the Gulf coast states along the coast, and portions of Florida could experience winds of up to Tropical Storm force from the GOMEX low.  The Caribbean system could briefly acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics, as both models are indicating forecast conditions for the next 72 – 78 hours to be marginal to slightly favorable on the latest run, based on a radial shear pattern over or near the “center” with favorable surface moisture and relative humidity up through the mid level of the atmosphere.  Thereafter, shear is forecast to increase, and drier air will be within the west side of the system.  Rainfall amounts over the next 5 days could be a little heavy over portions of the Gulf coast offshore and just along the coast.

I will continue to monitor the situation over the next 48 – 72 hours for any significant changes to forecast conditions.
ECMWF AND GFS MSLP ANOMALY FORECAST




SURFACE WIND FORECAST