PLEASE…Take time tomorrow, June 29, 2023, to honor my many fallen Brothers and Sisters who made the ULTIMATE sacrifice for our country.  Please hold their families and loved ones in your thoughts and prayers.  Thank you!

GMCS Walsh, USCG (ret.)

Disclaimer:  This is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

The following is my outlook forecast for the upcoming 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season:

STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 11– 14
TOTAL HURRICANES :        5 – 6
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

SEASON TOTALS
NAMED STORMS:           0
HURRICANES:                 0
MAJOR HURRICANES:  0

The following are the storm names for the 2023 hurricane season.  As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:

Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harold Idalia Jose Katia
Lee Margot Nigel Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney

Analysis this evenings indicates models hinting at a low probability of possible development Either over the GOMEX / Bahamas area, to off the SEUS coast, being initialized for 02 Jun. 2023.  Right now, it appears mainly the ensembles indicating a weak closed low.  The ECMWF EPS is over the GOMEX, and the GFS Ens. further east.  The deterministic models seem to indicate more of a large lowering of pressures more over the Bahamas area, and shifting these anomalies eastward.  The current ECMWF EPS Cyclone Probability forecast indicates a very low probability of a Tropical Depression.
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FORECAST



ECMWF AND GFS DETERMINISTIC MODELS FORECAST MSLP ANOMALIES


ECMWF EPS CYCLONE PROBABILITY (TROPICAL DEPRESSION)

Even though the MJO is forecast to enter phase 8 by months end (BTW, there is more agreement in the phase space diagram forecasts from other models that crashed the MJO after phase 7, albeit weaker signals, they did basically swing around to the BOM), and decent upward motion is forecast upon initialization of the supposed low, we quickly lose this upward motion, as it shifts eastward by the 4th of June.
MJO FORECAST




ECMWF AND GFS CHI200 ANOMALIES (SHOWING UPWARD MOTION…GREEN)


Based on my analysis of the wind shear forecast, and 200 mb streamlines forecast, forecast conditions do not appear to be favorable at the moment for any tropical development, as shear is supposed to remain high, and the 200 mb pattern over the area is forecast to be zonal.  I’ll be using a new map I found from a site I stumbled across today from NOAA’s AOML Hurricane Model Viewer…the GFDL SHiELD (System for High-resolution modeling for Earth-to-Local Domains) model.
GFDL 10 DAY WIND SHEAR FORECAST (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS LOOP)