Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Good day everyone!

Please note!  In regard to the severe weather forecasts, I will try to have them back for ENHANCED areas or above, once some of the models I use for analysis come back up.  They are still down, and contain information I use to provide a more accurate forecast.

Please use the following links regarding severe weather activity:

SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

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Due to the amount of weather groups I belong to, and emails I have to send out, I am not able to post to everyone personally.  In posting personally, it takes about 1 hour to get my information out to everybody.  Thanks for your understanding.

The following is my outlook forecast for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
STORM W’s SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 23 – 26
TOTAL HURRICANES :      12 – 15
MAJOR HURRICANES:        6 – 8

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

SEASON TOTALS
NAMED STORMS:           0
HURRICANES:                 0
MAJOR HURRICANES:  0

The following are the storm names for the 2024 hurricane season.  As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:

For those who have followed my over the years, you know as a system approaches the islands, or the U.S. coast, the updates tend to become longer.  However the information is critical, and includes links to the NHC watch and warning areas with information regarding hazards affecting land such as wind, storm surge, rainfall, surf, tornadoes, and specific areas along with any changes to the advisory hazards.  I also post storm surge maps from SLOSH data software, forecast rainfall, watch and warnings maps, etc.  I will also post in general as part of the forecast, animated model maps of the system, current steering layer, etc.  In the meantime, I did a little change, and have posted very good hurricane preparedness links to the site.  Please click the following link to access this information.
https://stormw.wordpress.com/stormws-toolbox/

Analysis of satellite loop imagery indicates a few tropical waves within the ITCZ, however at the moment there are no particular areas of interest regarding development.  The African satellite loops indicate the African wave train from much earlier this morning.
GOES 16 IR LOOP

TROPICAL WAVE TRAIN

AFRICASAT

The following is from cyclonicwx.com
METEOSAT 10 AFRICAN LOOP

The ECMWF EPS Tropical Cyclone Probability model still indicates probabilities of cyclone development.  Analysis of the global models this morning indicated that Tropical Cyclone development is not expected during the next 7 days.  However, the majority of the models are still suggesting some type of development within the area from the BOC, GOMEX, and toward the Yucatan Channel, with the forecast of pressures still lowering over these areas, to some indicating the development of a tropical or sub-tropical system over the GOMEX by mid month.  Although most of the global models tend to agree, this DOES NOT mean development will definitely occur.  I’ve had a couple seasons, where ALL of the major models were in agreement of tropical storm development one time, and nothing developed.  However, conditions based on model analysis are forecast to be marginally favorable for some type of development based on current wind shear and 200 mb wind forecast, indicating divergence over a decent portion of the GOMEX / BOC, based on their respective locations of a low.  The ECMWF indicates reduced wind shear and a radial patter over land, where it places the low, while the GFS and CMC indicate some lower shear, but not as well of a radial shear pattern.  My analysis of divergence is based on all 3 models 200 mb streamline forecast pattern for the forecast period.  Models are in agreement of plenty of moisture based on PWAT and RH data this morning.  On thing I did notice, is that the models appear to have come into better agreement on initialization of the activity beginning OOA the 15th of this month.

The models are discrepant in exact location and path, and continue to struggle with development.  Upon careful analysis (I had mentioned this yesterday), there is a trough split that does appear to occur, with a piece backing into the GOMEX.  At the same time, the CAG (Central American Gyre) will be interacting with the scenario as it becomes active and may be located over the Central American / Mexican landmass.  This may be creating the “glitch” with the global model forecasts.
CAG FORECAST 120 HOURS
The MJO  (Madden Julian Oscillation), represented by CH1200 anomalies.  Blue represents rising and diverging air at the 200 mb level (approx. 38,000 ft).  As this air diverges (spreads out radially), it has the tendency to lower pressures at the surface (in this case, at the surface of the ocean).  This makes it easier for low pressure to develop.

There have been no changes in the CHI200 anomalies forecast from the previous posts, and strong upward motion from the MJO is still predicted for the remainder of the month.
ECMWF EPS (CONTROL) CH1200 ANOMALIES 17 JUN – 22JUN

The MJO continues to be forecast to enter phases 8 and 1 during the period, however now showing a weaker signal.

MJO INDEX FORECAST (ACCESS – S2 MODEL)

ECMWF TROPICAL CYCLONE PROBABILITY FORECAST 216 – 264 HOURS

240 – 288 HOURS

TROPICAL STORM PROBABILITIES

The following are forecast MSLP anomaly maps from the global models:
ECMWF

GFS