Disclaimer:  This is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

The following is my outlook forecast for the upcoming 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 11– 14
TOTAL HURRICANES :        5 – 6
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

SEASON TOTALS
NAMED STORMS:           1
HURRICANES:                 0
MAJOR HURRICANES:  0

The following are the storm names for the 2023 hurricane season.  As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:

Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harold Idalia Jose Katia
Lee Margot Nigel Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney

First, I would like to start by thanking everyone of you who sent condolences and prayers regarding the loss of my son.  I did not get to reply to everyone, as it has been just crazy, dealing with his sudden death, and having to make arrangements.  Thank all of you again, sincerely!

I am going to begin with basically, why we had (Arlene?).  As the low responsible for the system drifted south into and over the GOMEX, I did believe that the low would not go tropical, or at least fully tropical.  If you read at the beginning of this page, I have a brief statement about my forecasting.  In Arlene’s instance, analysis of the various parameters I analyze, all of the models had called for wind shear to remain around 40 – 60 kts for the “lifetime” of the system, with diminishing moisture into the 5 day period.  Again, to show how quickly conditions can change in the atmosphere, when the low was designated a depression, wind shear directly over the system relaxed from 35 – 40 kts, down to 15 – 20 knots, hence the deep convection that fired over the “center”.  In addition to the very warm water in the GOMEX, the depression was drawing in ample moisture from the Caribbean Sea.  At the time, I did agree with the NHC designating a tropical depression.  However, wind shear did again pick up approx. 36 hours later, shearing the depression as it moved south.  At the time of upgrading the system to tropical storm ARLENE, the LLC was exposed as almost a totally naked swirl, with convection being sheared east of the system.  Hence, no “organized deep convection” around a well defined surface circulation.  In my humble and professional opinion, the system should have been downgraded, vice being designated as a tropical storm.  The following are 2 satellite images at the time she was named.


Criteria from both NHC and NWS regarding a tropical cyclone:
Tropical Cyclone: A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center.

Tropical Cyclone
A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center.

To even be classified a disturbance:
A tropical weather system with organized convection (generally 100-300 miles in diameter) originating in the tropics or subtropics, having a non-frontal migratory character and maintaining its identity for 24 hours or longer.

I rest my case.

Having seen various posts containing forecast MSLP forecasts from the GFS, it appears the model has been consistent in developing a hurricane in the GOMEX in approximately 2 weeks, around the 20th – 22nd of the month.  In my analysis this evening, it appears each run shows a weaker and smaller system, which is forecast to initiate down in the W. Caribbean.  Though this out at 312 hours in the forecast period, and right now is considered low confidence (no other global models show this feature), I would caution not to dismiss this right away, until we see what happens within the 5 – 7 day mark in the forecast period.  Though the GFS pretty much has done the same thing over the past 2 seasons, I have thought back, in which the GFS would initialize a system strongly, follow the same pattern, then drop it, only to find out other models began to pick up on said systems, to which the GFS appeared to be correct as far as the location of initialization.

As stated, the GFS is currently the only model indicating some moderately favorable conditions.  The GFS indicates a radial shear pattern, and some upper level outflow at 200 mb.  The 200 mb forecast isn’t ideal, however the flow would provide diffluence northward of the Yucatan Peninsula.  We’ll have to see if after this week, whether or not the other models come on board, or if the GFS is doing another “ghost system”.
GFS WIND SHEAR AND 200 MB STREAMLINE FORECAST


Some of the reasons I am not poo – pooing this at the moment, is mainly the ensemble models are projecting areas of low pressure, and the ECMWF EPS Cyclone probability forecast is now showing a low probability for development out to 288 hours in the period.
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS



ECMWF EPS CYCLONE PROBABILITY 288 HOURS

GFS MSLP ANOMALY FORECAST

In addition (if you remember what I mentioned prior to Arlene), the MJO is forecast to move into phases 1 and 2, which supports tropical development over the locations in the graphic.  When our depression formed, we were in phase 8 if I remember correctly.
CURRENT MJO PHASE SPACE FORECAST FROM BOM