Disclaimer: This is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.
The following is my outlook forecast for the upcoming 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 11– 14
TOTAL HURRICANES : 5 – 6
MAJOR HURRICANES: 2 – 3
AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES: 7
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
SEASON TOTALS
NAMED STORMS: 4
HURRICANES: 0
MAJOR HURRICANES: 0
The following are the storm names for the 2023 hurricane season. As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:
Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harold Idalia Jose Katia
Lee Margot Nigel Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney
Good evening everyone!
The NHC is still fascinated with “Tropical Storm” DON. Satellite imagery continues to show a sheared system, with convection being pushed away to the south and east of the center:
WEATHERNERDS DON FLOATER LOOP
Elsewhere, a Tropical Wave has just exited the coast of Africa (I know, sounds like a broken record). The last 2 waves that came off have since weakened, with no development, although the ECMWF EPS Cyclone Formation Probability forecast showed a decent probability for some type of development. Well, De javu. The ECMWF EPS Probability forecast appears to have given this wave at least a 40% probability of development over the next 5 days.
Is this possible? It is, however I’m not going to hold my breath unless I see some forecast conditions improve. Albeit both the ECMWF and GFS indicate forecast wind shear during the time period from 72 – 120 hours out, to be below 20 knots at 120 hours with the ECMWF indicating a radial shear pattern, and the GFS developing this pattern a little later in the period, analysis this evening indicates a 200mb upper level anticyclone to be centered further north and not over where the wave should be, nor over the radial shear pattern. Limited moisture was also noted in the forecast maps as far as RH and PWAT. Right now, given the broad nature of this wave, it’s a little tough to determine what direction this may take. IF this becomes better consolidated during the next 24 – 48 hours, it may be a little easier. Based on analysis of forecast steering from different sources at this time, my best estimate is this could either continue west, or begin heading toward the NW. Regardless, I will continue to monitor the area in question for any significant changes to the forecast parameters. To touch on why development hasn’t been as easy as it was at the beginning of the month (why the 2 previous waves did not develop, and why this current one may have difficulty), the MDR has been pretty stable. The vertical instability chart indicates this, showing vertical insatiability below climatology. This is most likely contributed to the presence of the SAL, indicated by dry air in the RGB airmass satellite picture from CIMSS.
EATL SATELLITE LOOP
ATLANTIC WIDE SATELLITE LOOP
AFRICAN SATELLITE LOOP
CIMSS RGB AIRMASS
CIMSS NATURAL COLOR
You’ll note from the central to eastern Atlantic the tiny clouds that look like cotton balls or popcorn, these are Stratocumulus clouds, which indicate a very stable atmosphere.
MDR VERTICAL INSTABILITY CHART
ECMWF FORECAST WIND SHEAR, 200 MB STREAMLINES, AND PWAT
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com
Have a blessed evening.
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
