ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided. Keep in mind, if a forecast doesn’t exactly pan out, remember, the atmosphere is fluid in motion. When models are being analyzed, that’s just one run, and I have to go with what is presented. After that, models don’t update again for another 4 – 6 hours, so, what happens between that time is unknown, and forecast conditions can change slightly, to greatly. This will have an effect on my actual forecast.
The following is my outlook forecast for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14– 16
TOTAL HURRICANES : 5 – 7
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3 – 4
AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES: 7
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
SEASON TOTALS
NAMED STORMS: 12
HURRICANES: 3
MAJOR HURRICANES: 2
Given that the NHC has named at least 3, if not more, garbage systems, I had to increase my seasonal forecast slightly.
The following are the storm names for the 2023 hurricane season. As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:
Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harold Idalia Jose Katia
Lee Margot Nigel Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney
Greetings everyone!
As a reminder, when forecasting tropical systems, if there are numerous systems to deal with, I always update on the systems that may present an impact or threat to either the U. S. or the Caribbean islands. Anything far out in the Atlantic or something that may re-curve, take a lower priority as there is more time to deal with them.
I am currently monitoring what has now been upgraded to Tropical Depression 13. As of the 5:00 p.m. update from the NHC, the following was available on Tropical Storm LEE:
(As I was typing this, TD 13 was upgraded to Tropical Storm LEE)
5:00 PM AST Tue Sep 5
Location: 13.2°N 41.8°W
Moving: WNW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb / 29.68 in.
Max sustained: 45 mph
Recent satellite loop imagery indicates the system has become quickly more organized from this morning, and central pressure had dropped 5 millibars since earlier this morning, in which the central pressure had been at 1010 mb.
WEATHERNERDS TD 13 SATELLITE LOOP IMAGES
LEE is currently moving to the WNW and is being steered by a mid level ridge, with a small weakness noted north of the storm noted in the current steering layer. The average of this is creating the current WNW motion. Based on analysis of forecast steering, animated MSLP maps, and 500 mb geopotential height maps, at about days 6 – 7, the ridge is forecast to develop a weakness on its western periphery, with a trough coming in. This should allow for LEE to begin heading on a more northerly component, and LEE should eventually re-curve. Based on this, I agree with the current track guidance as it is very well clustered, and also the current NHC forecast track. It is noted that the NHC track is just left of the consensus models. This forecast SHOULD pan out, however it is wise to keep a close eye on future guidance. With a system as strong as forecast, two things can occur. One is, the storm can “pump the ridge”, meaning a strong category 4 or category 5 hurricane can reinforce the SW portion of the ridge, thereby allowing the storm to maintain a more westerly component. When I mention this, I do not mean a due west track. For example, if a storm is, or is forecast to travel NW, pumping the ridge would allow for a more WNW motion, briefly. The other is, the storm can become stronger than the effect of the approaching trough, and move through it, vice being repelled. I recommend residents of the Lesser and Greater Antilles still keep a close eye on this storm. From the NHC earlier:
The depression is moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt. A mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic is expected to persist to the north of the tropical cyclone, keeping the system moving with this general motion through Saturday. The spread in the model guidance is remarkably low for a first advisory, and the official forecast is near or west of the model consensus. However, it should be noted that the NOAA corrected-consensus aids and some ensemble members are still to the left of the official forecast, so it is too early to determine exactly how close this system will get to the Leeward Islands given the average track forecast error at those time ranges.
ECMWF AND GFS 500 MB GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FORECAST FROM 120 – 240 HOURS
CURRENT MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE
NHC FORECAST TRACK
Maximum sustained winds of Tropical Storm LEE were estimated at 45 mph. Based on my analysis of forecast conditions, there has been no change in the forecast. The shear pattern is forecast to become more improved during the storms trek toward the islands, along with the improvement of the 200 mb pattern, mid level RH, and precipitable water. As of current, LEE has favorable conditions for further intensification, with a now established radial shear pattern, indicating no zonal shear to tilt the storm or disrupt convection, along with high precipitable water, and improved 200 mb outflow pattern, though not optimal at the moment. The forecast at 120 hours calls for these conditions to become textbook, directly over the storm. Based on my analysis, and seeing the overshooting cloud top in visible loop imagery, I cannot rule out LEE attaining hurricane status a little earlier than forecast. Based on the premise of extremely favorable conditions materializing, LEE should go through a period of rapid intensification sometime within the next 48 hours. Given all this, I am forecasting LEE to become a major hurricane, most likely reaching category 4 status. NHC agrees with my forecast, in which I have been calling for, for the past 2 – 3 days.
ECMWF SHEAR, PWAT, MID LEVEL RH, AND 200 MB STREAMLINE FORECAST 120 HOURS
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
INIT 05/2100Z..
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