ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.
The following is my outlook forecast for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 11– 14
TOTAL HURRICANES : 5 – 6
MAJOR HURRICANES: 2 – 3
AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES: 7
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
SEASON TOTALS
NAMED STORMS: 9
HURRICANES: 2
MAJOR HURRICANES: 0
The following are the storm names for the 2023 hurricane season. As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:
Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harold Idalia Jose Katia
Lee Margot Nigel Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney
Greetings everyone!
As a reminder, when forecasting tropical systems, if there are numerous systems to deal with, I always update on the systems that may present an impact or threat to either the U. S. or the Caribbean islands. Anything far out in the Atlantic or something that may re-curve, take a lower priority as there is more time to deal with them.
I am currently monitoring what is now Tropical Storm IDALIA, located just south of the Yucatan Channel. Satellite loop imagery indicated the LLC became exposed, and had been moving toward the east, earlier today, which was most likely related to a semi-anticyclonic loop that had been forecast per the ECMWF. IDALIA had not become any better organized earlier today, and satellite imagery indicates to me that she may have slightly ingested some drier air, based on some waning convection, and arc clouds spreading out near the center, and north of the northward rain band spreading north of Cuba. You may notice this in the visible satellite loop:
WEATHERNERDS IDALIA GOES 16 SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY (IR, VIS, and WATER VAPOR)
In the last couple of frames however, it appears IDALIA may be trying to become better organized, with convection appearing to begin to build over the center, and water vapor appears to be taking care of the surrounding dry air.
As of the 5:00 p.m. EDT advisory from the NHC, the following was available on IDALIA:
4:00 PM CDT Sun Aug 27
Location: 20.1°N 85.5°W
Moving: NE at 3 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
IDALIA was moving toward the NE at 3 mph according to the NHC. Based on current steering, a large ridge currently over the U.S., preventing any westward movent. Based on analysis of forecast steering and MSLP animations, I expect a north, to slightly east of north track to continue during the next 48 hours, as a mid level ridge builds NE of the system. Thereafter, as IDALIA makes her way to the NE GOMEX, the mid level trof I mentioned which stood out on the GFS model, is forecast to build over the eastern U.S., which should turn the storm more toward a NNE to NE track. It is noted, the NHC track has been shifted slightly to the left. Based on this, I concur with the current forecast track, which is in line with consensus guidance, and a blend of the ECMWF and GFS. The ECMWF is a little more toward the east however, and I will be monitoring this and the TVCA/TVCE models to see if a further shift left is in order. I feel the GFS is too far left. This shift in track is most likely due to the LLC having moved east briefly once it became exposed.
NHC FORECAST TRACK MAP
18Z TRACK GUIDANCE, ECMWF EPS GUIDANCE, and GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
IDALIA’S current intensity was 40 mph. Current conditions still remain favorable for further strengthening and organization, though I feel quicker organization will occur once she moves north of the Yucatan Channel in order to clear the Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba. Though a little displaced, a radial shear pattern is still in place, an upper level outflow is established, however not optimal at the moment, and PWAT is still very high:
CIMSS CURRENT WIND SHEAR, UPPER LEVEL WINDS and PWAT
There has been no change to the forecast factors based on my analysis of both the ECMWF and GFS models. Both models indicate the favorable conditions to be maintained through the life of the storm. Both indicate a radial shear pattern to remain over IDALIA, moderate to high relative humidity values up through mid levels, and very high PWAT values, which indicate a very wet storm. The latest SHIPS diagnostics report indicates shear to stay below 15 knots for the next 60 – 72 hours. Thereafter, some moderate shear may occur, however, even though the 200 mb pattern will not be radial, it is forecast to be a very diffluent pattern (spreading out of air in the upper levels) from the center of the storm, northward. Based on the premise of this, should the conditions pan out, I concur with the NHC forecast intensity at the moment. However, also given the high OHC in the path, I am not willing to rule out some rapid intensification while it traverses the area with the higher OHC. This will depend on how quickly IDALIA is able to organize, and if the forecast conditions all pan out. Currently, the forecast is now calling for a CAT 2 hurricane. IF everything pans out to almost perfect conditions during the next 48-60 hours, I cannot safely rule out a minimal CAT 3 hurricane at some point. I’m stubborn, and could be wrong, but the models have been projecting these favorable conditions for the past 3 days.
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/2100Z 20.1N 85.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 20.5N 85.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 21.7N 85.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 23.4N 84.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 25.6N 84.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 30/0600Z 28.7N 83.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 31.3N 81.9W 50 KT 60 MPH…INLAND
96H 31/1800Z 34.5N 76.0W 50 KT 60 MPH…OVER WATER
120H 01/1800Z 35.0N 71.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
HURRICANE WATCHES have been issued for a good portion of the Florida Gulf Coast. IF your area is under a HURRICANE WATCH, please review your preparedness plans, and begin making preparations:
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Gulf coast of Florida
from Chokoloskee to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay.
A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Gulf coast of Florida
from Englewood to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Gulf coast of
Florida south of Englewood to Chokoloskee, and for the Dry Tortugas.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel
* Pinar del Rio Cuba
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Indian Pass Florida, including Tampa Bay
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to Indian Pass Florida, including Tampa Bay
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Isle of Youth Cuba
* South of Englewood to Chokoloskee Florida
* Dry Tortugas Florida
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
Interests along the southeastern U.S. coast should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will
likely be required on Monday.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Aucilla River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...7-11 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-8..
