Update your settings

Nothing signals the start of a new NRL season quite like a wave of tepid takes and ill-informed opinions.

For fear of being left out, here are my predictions for the 2023 NRL season.

Premiers – Sydney Roosters

James Tedesco, Joey Manu, Joseph Suaali’i, Daniel Tupou, Luke Keary, Brandon Smith, Victor Radley, Angus Crichton, Lindsay Collins. These are just some of the representative players lining up for the Sydney Roosters in 2023.

Their starting 13 boast a combined 47 Origin caps, 117 games for their country, 23 Grand Final wins, a Dally M medal and a Golden Boot.

Don’t ask me how they do it. I’ve tried to unravel the web of third-party agreements and below market deals, but all I got for my trouble was a bad case of ulcerative Politis. These days, for the sake of my mental health, I just shrug my shoulders and return to the foetal position.

Only injury or misfortune can prevent the Roosters from claiming their third premiership in six years. Penrith should put up a fight, but they might need a year or two to regenerate their ravaged roster. Parramatta missed their chance and the Storm are still searching for their missing forward pack. This will be the year of the Rooster. Again.

Wooden spoon – New Zealand Warriors

After almost three years on the road, the Warriors finally return to New Zealand for the 2023 season. Being stuck in a COVID-induced limbo has impacted junior development and their ability to attract marquee talent, leaving the Warriors with a squad of misfits, bad boys and journeymen.

Now saddled with their fifth coach in three years, the latest victim being former Penrith assistant coach Andrew Webster, it’s difficult to foresee this team winning more than a handful of games. Put a fork in the Warriors – they’re done.

Dark horse – Gold Coast Titans

The Titans fell well short of expectations last year. While they boasted incredible talent across the park, it was clear that they lacked experience, especially along the spine. Coach Justin Holbrook tinkered with different combinations, but still only managed six wins for the season.

The addition of Kieran Foran and Sam Verrills will have a noticeable impact. Their experience will have a stabilising effect on the likes of AJ Brimson and Jayden Campbell, allowing them to revert to their natural attacking style. This team could score a bag of points.

Add in the presence of Tino Fa’asuamaleaui and David Fifita, each another year older and wiser, plus the rapid ascension of Beau Fermor and Erin Clark, and the Titans could catch a lot of people by surprise.

Climbing up the ladder – Manly Sea Eagles

Manly will go as far as Tom Trbojevic’s dodgy hamstrings can take them. The fullback has been limited to an average of only 13 games over the last five seasons, but his contributions during those games has been unlike any other player in the competition. I’m betting his body holds up in 2023.

Putting to one side his recent travels to Philadelphia and the revolutionary training techniques he’s brought back to Brookvale, Turbo is due some good luck. Would it be so bad to see one of the best humans in the NRL dodge the injury bug for a full season and help his team do amazing things?

I can picture the headline now – “Good bloke has good fortune and achieves good things”. It doesn’t rate too highly on the outrage meter and it might need a little wordsmithing, but it’s certainly a story I’d like to see unfold. If Trbojevic plays 20 games, Manly make the top four.

Falling down the ladder – North Queensland Cowboys

I loved watching the Cowboys in 2022. They were relentlessly physical in defence and energetic in attack. Their veterans sustained a high level of play while previously unknown youngsters like Reuben Cotter and Jeremiah Nanai exploded onto the scene and became household names.

No one was ready for the Cowboys. Not the media, not the fans and certainly not the opposition. Todd Payten’s style of play caught rival coaches on their heels, and they weren’t able to regain their footing.

But the element of surprise only lasts so long. Just ask English spinner Peter Such, who took 6/67 on debut against the Aussies and was barely heard from again. With opposing sides having a full off-season to study the Cowboys, they might be in for a reality check this year. They’ll make the top 8, but only just.

State of Origin – New South Wales

The equation is simple – the Blues have better players and more of them. If Nathan Cleary, Latrell Mitchell, Tom Trbojevic, Nicho Hynes and James Tedesco stay healthy, New South Wales will win the series.

It was the same story during that dreaded Queensland dynasty. They had a team boasting Cameron Smith, Billy Slater, Johnathan Thurston and Cooper Cronk. The Blues had Mitchell Pearce. As a result, the Maroons won more games than they lost.

Don’t give me that Queensland spirit malarkey; it’s about as palatable as the mid-strength dishwater they call beer. Rugby league is a game of talent and availability. If luck favours the Blues, they will take back the shield.

Dally M Medal – Nathan Cleary

It’s hard to believe that Cleary hasn’t won a Dally M medal. Entering his eighth NRL season, he’s been the game’s premier player for half a decade. He’s won Grand Finals, State of Origin matches and even a World Cup, yet circumstances continually conspire to rob him of individual honours.

Last year it was a lengthy suspension for spearing Dylan Brown into the turf like a lawn dart. The previous year, Cleary ran second to a Tom Trbojevic masterclass. And in 2019, despite being an unbackable favourite down the stretch, he lost out to Jack Wighton in a controversial count.

With Api Koroisau embracing early retirement at Concord and Viliame Kikau cashing cheques at Belmore, there will be additional opportunities for Cleary to snare points on a weekly basis. Provided he stays fit and avoids the judiciary, 2023 will finally be his year.

Comeback player – Ryan Papenhuyzen

Looking at the X-ray of his smashed-up knee, it’s a miracle that Papenhuyzen was able to walk again. So bad was the fracture to his kneecap that the doctors likened the damage to something sustained in a car crash or a Liam Neeson movie.

It’s been a rough couple of seasons for the Melbourne fullback. Concussion robbed him of a chunk of the 2021 season, while knee and hamstring issues limited him to 12 games last year. While not on track to play in Round 1, he is expected to make a full recovery and play again this year.

Player under the most pressure – Matt Burton

Much is expected of Canterbury in 2023. Phil Gould’s latest passion project has been the talk of the off-season, creating headlines faster than Phil Rothfield can write them. From new coaches to marquee signings, the pressure to perform will be immediate.

As the crown jewel of the Belmore blueprint, Matt Burton will shoulder much of this expectation. Although the overall talent level around him has increased, the Bulldogs still lack creative options along the spine. That leaves Burton as the man tasked with improving an attack that scored less than 15 points per game over the last three seasons.

Best buy – Brandon Smith

Brandon Smith is an average dummy-half. He has an inaccurate pass, makes poor decisions in attack and struggles to play 80 minutes. But what Smith lacks in touch he makes up in mongrel.

Fiercely competitive, he craves the collision like a crash test dummy. In combination with Matt Lodge, Victor Radley and Jared Waerea-Hargreaves, Smith will provide the Sydney Roosters with a level of physicality and intimidation to match any side in the competition.

The signing reminds me a little of Craig Wing. Wing wasn’t a specialist hooker, although he often wore the number 9. Instead it was his versatility and football IQ that the Roosters coveted. If Trent Robinson can teach the Cheese to pass and limit his need to think, he’ll be helping James Tedesco hoist the trophy come October.

Worst buy – Viliame Kikau

Kikau was an incredible player within the confines of the Penrith system. His ability to lead the kick chase, prevent a player from getting to the ground and drive him backwards was a work of art. Opposition teams would routinely be kicking from behind their 30-metre line thanks largely to Kikau’s work in defence.

The Panthers set Kikau up to succeed. Coached by some of the best in the business and surrounded by elite talent, the Fijian could focus only on his role within the team. I’m not sure he’ll have that luxury at the Bulldogs.

Canterbury signed him to be a leader. To mould the younger players and teach them to be professional footballers. They’re paying him top dollar to be the type of player they thought they were getting in Tevita Pangai Junior. You’d have thought they would have learned the first time.

Most interesting storyline – The dawn of the Dolphins

Rugby league is rarely considered a romantic game. But there is something beautifully poetic about Wayne Bennett’s return to southeast Queensland.

Thirty-five years since he became the inaugural coach of the Brisbane Broncos, Bennett returns to where it all began.

At the same time, the player who helped him win five premierships at the Broncos is fighting to remain their coach while also feuding with Brisbane’s head of football, who just happens to be Bennett’s son-in-law.

I’m not sure if that’s necessarily poetic—it feels more like a collaboration between Vince McMahon and the writers of The Bold and the Beautiful. Regardless, the Dolphins’ first season in the NRL will be compulsive viewing.

Most tiresome trope – The Wests Tigers

The Wests Tigers were an NRL 360 fever dream in 2022. Coaching speculation, player unrest, football department power struggles, media leaks – they had it all. Their inept performances on the field were just the icing on the cake.

Part of the reason the club has struggled in recent seasons can be traced back to the money they wasted on big-name recruits like Russell Packer, Josh Reynolds and Moses Mbye. Having finally emerged from salary cap hell, Wests swiftly handed out monster deals to David Klemmer, Api Koroisau and John Bateman. I just hope that Albert Einstein wasn’t a Tigers fan.

2023 NRL ladder

1. Sydney Roosters
2. Penrith Panthers
3. Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks
4. Melbourne Storm
5. South Sydney Rabbitohs
6. Parramatta Eels
7. North Queensland Cowboys
8. Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles
9. Canberra Raiders
10. Brisbane Broncos
11. Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs
12. St George Illawarra Dragons
13. Gold Coast Titans
14. Wests Tigers
15. Newcastle Knights
16. Dolphins
17. Warriors