A weekend away with the family and only one game consumed live – among a lot of highlights clips and mini-replays – meant Round 5 was the perfect time to reflect on what we’ve seen so far in Super Rugby Pacific.
There are two obvious observations to make here, the first of which has been discussed heavily through the first month of the competition.
And that’s the law variations. There’s no question they’ve had an impact and even five rounds in, it’s good to see referees and teams alike still working to keep the game moving.
The worry was that like all good crackdowns, they might last only as far as Round 3 before we started losing interest, but clearly the intent is still there.
Set-piece formations are definitely quicker, kickers are getting on with it, and the fatigue factor late in games is frankly un-ignorable as ball in play increases and/or total elapsed time drastically decreases.
Whichever has moved the most, games and defences are definitely opening up more late in games, and it’s the speed men seemingly taking the most benefit: Shaun Stevenson, Corey Toole, Mark Talea, and Josh Flook among others have all enjoyed plenty of space as it becomes available.
Perhaps the timing of tries is another column for another day, but the last two rounds have seen a proper explosion of tries and points.
In Round 3, we saw just 36 tries scored across the six games, with five of the six losing teams picking up bonus points for losing by fewer than seven points. In Round 4 that jumped up to 59 tries, and there were 52 last weekend as well, but only four bonus points across the 12 games for scoring three tries more than the opposition, where the average scores work out as home teams 34.5 vs away teams 28.8.
For the report card, I’ve again used the same broad categories as in the most recent editions, with the twist this season being that I’m still trying to shoehorn two teams into a category as I write this.
Ten of the 12 teams are easily sorted, based on how they’re going relative to my loose thoughts on how they might go before a ball was kicked in anger.
But two teams leave me scratching my head a bit and I’m essentially hoping they will fall one direction or the other as we go.
Well ahead
Three teams fall into this category, and all for the same reason: they’re doing way better than I had them pegged for in the preseason. Way better!
The irony in the case of the Chiefs is that I’ve done it too them again. A quick glance at last year’s edition of the report card showed that they just didn’t feature on my radar for 2022 either, but started the season in superb form. Rinse and repeat for 2023.
And it’s not that I thought they’d be terrible this season, I just had them in that sizable but bound-to-be-tight mid-table group of teams.
But they’re unbeaten, so they’re well ahead, and it’s entirely plausible that they could be unbeaten still when they host the Crusaders for the second time this season in Round 9.
Damian McKenzie of the Chiefs (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
The Melbourne Rebels are the second team well ahead of expectations, and what I love about them at the moment is we can see their confidence growing every week. The next five games will be where that growing confidence is tested the most, with three of last year’s semi-finalists to come as well as the Drua in Fiji this weekend.
But on current form, they’re not going to be pushovers in any of these upcoming games, and there will be no reason why they won’t think they can win them all.
And they just might. Rebels teams of the past might not have come back from 14-0 down on Saturday night against Queensland, and certainly wouldn’t have composed themselves to regain the lead late in the game and then defend their line to secure the win, as they did.
They’re a very different team this season and playing great rugby to boot. I can’t wait to see what they do with this promising start.
The ACT Brumbies are well ahead too, and as I wrote last week, it was the loss of senior players with nothing really approaching like-for-like in the replacement signings that had me winding them out for this season.
But they’re certainly the best of the Australian teams still, and have a chance to underline that in the coming fortnight with NSW and Queensland to come in successive weeks. The resting cavalry will return, injured props are working their way back too, and they just seem to have a squad in a good place at the moment. A seamless takeover for Stephen Larkham thus far.
On par
Let’s start with the Reds and Drua here, who are both going about as well as expected, and who would describe their season so far as being a frustrating one (exactly the word Harry Wilson used on the pod last week).
They’ve both won games, but they’ve both lost games they felt they should have won, and with some disappointment in performances mixed in as well.
Both have shown signs of improvement though, and this next month quite probably makes or breaks their seasons.
The Crusaders and Hurricanes fit in here as well, albeit for slightly different reasons.
The Canes I had pegged alongside the Chiefs in mid-table, though I will concede they might just have stumbled onto a good solution for their flyhalf issues in Brett Cameron, who is a much-improved player than when he played his one Test while still a Crusaders rookie. They’re in the thick of it right now, and they can remain a ‘top half’ team from here on.
The Crusaders taking a few weeks to warm up is hardly a new phenomenon, and you only have to go back a fortnight to see them only just clinging onto eighth on the ladder.
The win over the depleted Brumbies on the weekend was the first sign that the right gear has been found, and even with some work to do still, they’ll do what they always do from here on: suddenly reappear in the top three again and never move for the rest of the season.
Not angry, just disappointed
The Western Force, the Highlanders, Moana Pasifika. Didn’t have any of them slotted in for home finals, but certainly thought we’d see more than they’ve shown so far.
The Force, with a new coach and what on paper looked like some handy recruits, sadly don’t look much different to last season, and that’s despite fighting well to record the two wins they currently have. The Hurricanes in Palmerston North this weekend coming represents their last chance to take something home from their three-week New Zealand tour, but it’s hard to see how desperation might improve their current performance.
Toni Pulu and Issak Fines-Leleiwasa of the Force (Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)
Ditto the Highlanders, who at least might be falling into some form with consecutive wins in the last fortnight. But their defence remains a huge concern, conceding the second-most number of points, and the third-most tries already through five rounds.
They have endured or are enduring a shocking injury list and that does certainly impact them every week, but there’s still a bit for them to do before being convinced they’re a better team.
Moana Pasifika, I figured, with a full season and another off-season under their belt, would be in a much improved position than this time last season, especially with COVID now in the rearview mirror and games going ahead on schedule and as planned.
But despite having much the same squad gaining all that experience, it’s hard to see any great improvements in Moana in 2023. They’re conceding 46 points and 6.8 tries a game already, and that’s got to be concerning.
Which leaves me with…
The Blues and Waratahs.
I’ve been trying to make a case for them to fit comfortably into one of the three categories, but it’s been quite challenging to do without it feeling like a harsh judgement one way or the other.
The Blues did disappoint me to start with, but maybe putting the Force away so clinically on Sunday puts them back on par. They will be there or thereabout this season, pushing for a home final again, I have no doubt. But they still feel a bit of a distance off where they finished the 2022 season.
So maybe they are on par, but with disappointment noted.
Conversely, the Waratahs started with a form line to match the off-field hype, and one win and two losing bonus-points had last year’s green shoots ready to burst into life and start the climb further up the competition ladder.
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But two largish losses and a suddenly bulging casualty ward in the last two weeks has been a disappointment, in so far that even with two very winnable games in their next four – the Force and Highlanders both at home – their current showings don’t exactly scream ‘tip me’.
They should easily win those two of their next four, but they could just as easily lose all four.
And so really, the only way to view them right now is through a lens of disappointment, especially after what looked like a pretty solid start. It will be great to watch them turn it around from here.
So that’s where they all fall, in my pencil scrawl on a page and with a far from scientific methodology applied.
The interesting part will be to see which teams can move from these categories from here, and in which direction.
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