ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided. Keep in mind, if a forecast doesn’t exactly pan out, remember, the atmosphere is fluid in motion. When models are being analyzed, that’s just one run, and I have to go with what is presented. After that, models don’t update again for another 4 – 6 hours, so, what happens between that time is unknown, and forecast conditions can change slightly, to greatly. This will have an effect on my actual forecast. Unless otherwise noted, satellite imagery is provided through Weathernerds.org
The following is my outlook forecast for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14– 16
TOTAL HURRICANES : 5 – 7
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3 – 4
AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES: 7
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
SEASON TOTALS:
NAMED STORMS: 17
HURRICANES: 6
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
Given that the NHC has named at least 3, if not more, garbage systems, I had to increase my seasonal forecast slightly.
The following are the storm names for the 2023 hurricane season. As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:
Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harold Idalia Jose Katia
Lee Margot Nigel Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney
Greetings everyone!
As a reminder, when forecasting tropical systems, if there are numerous systems to deal with, I always update on the systems that may present an impact or threat to either the U. S. or the Caribbean islands. Anything far out in the Atlantic or something that may re-curve, take a lower priority as there is more time to deal with them. Unless we have a system threatening any area, the forecast office will be closed on the weekends.
Tropical Storm PHILIPPE is still a sheared system. In fact, in my opinion, it doesn’t even resemble anything tropical, and should be downgraded to Post Tropical / Extratropical.
PHILIPPE IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
CIMSS WIND SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL WIND PATTERN
As of the 11:00 a.m. EDT advisory from the NHC, The following information was available on PHILIPPE. This is the FINAL advisory from the NHC: (as this advisory was just issued in the finishing touches of my synopsis, the NHC DID just declare PHILIPPE post tropical)
11:00 AM AST Fri Oct 6
Location: 30.7°N 64.6°W
Moving: NNE at 16 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb / 29.62 in
Max sustained: 50 mph
Being this is the final advisory from the NHC, any type of watches, warnings, advisories or statements will be issued by your local NWS office, which can be accessed through the map at he end of this synopsis.
Based on analysis of the recent shear and upper level wind maps, it is clear that whatever the system is, is interacting with the mid to upper level trough. Based on my analysis of forecast wind shear and upper level winds, shear is forecast to remain high over the system, and with the system interacting with the trough, some further slight strengthening could occur. Based on my analysis of forecast MSLP anomalies, and 500 mb anomalies, PHILIPPE should merge with the current mid level low, which is now developing into a surface low, should merge with that feature sometime tonight, or during the day tomorrow. Any future intensification will be due to baroclinicity. Based on this mix, I agree with the current NHC intensity forecast:
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
INIT 06/1500Z 30.7N 64.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 07/0000Z 33.1N 64.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 07/1200Z 36.3N 66.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 08/0000Z 40.0N 66.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 08/1200Z 44.9N 67.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 09/0000Z 49.1N 70.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED
PHILIPPE was moving to the NNE as of this update. Based on my analysis of forecast maps showing ridge and trough orientations, forecast steering, and guidance, I agree with the current NHC forecast track. Based on the information analyzed, PHILIPPE should maintain a brief N to NNE motion, and then eventually bend back toward the NNW. With this track, residents along the New England and NE coastal areas will experience significant wave heights.
12Z TRACK GUIDANCE
NHC FORECAST TRACK
WAVEWATCH 3 FORECAST
The following are projected 7 day rainfall totals from the ECMWF and GFS, and forecast surface wind speed out to 72 hours.
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