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Ohio voters — in a rare August election — turned out in unexpectedly high numbers to defeat a ballot measure that would have made it harder to pass an abortion-rights constitutional amendment on the ballot in November. The election was almost a year to the day after Kansas voters also stunned observers by supporting abortion rights in a ballot measure.
Meanwhile, the percentage of Americans without health insurance dropped to an all-time low of 7.7% in early 2023, reported the Department of Health and Human Services. But that’s not likely to continue, as states boot from the Medicaid program millions of people who received coverage under special eligibility rules during the pandemic.
This week’s panelists are Julie Rovner of KFF Health News, Emmarie Huetteman of KFF Health News, Joanne Kenen of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and Politico, and Rachel Roubein of The Washington Post.
Panelists Emmarie Huetteman KFF Health News @emmarieDC Read Emmarie's stories Joanne Kenen Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and Politico @JoanneKenen Read Joanne's stories Rachel Roubein The Washington Post @rachel_roubein Read Rachel's storiesAmong the takeaways from this week’s episode:
Also this week, Rovner interviews Kate McEvoy, executive director of the National Association of Medicaid Directors, about how the “Medicaid unwinding” is going as millions have their eligibility for coverage rechecked.
Plus, for “extra credit” the panelists suggest health policy stories they read this week that they think you should read, too:
Julie Rovner: KFF Health News’ “How the Texas Trial Changed the Story of Abortion Rights in America,” by Sarah Varney.
Joanne Kenen: Fox News’ “Male Health Care Leaders Complete ‘Simulated Breastfeeding Challenge’ at Texas Hospital: ‘Huge Eye-Opener’,” by Melissa Rudy.
Rachel Roubein: Stat’s “From Windows to Wall Art, Hospitals Use Virtual Reality to Design More Inclusive Rooms for Kids,” by Mohana Ravindranath.
Emmarie Huetteman: KFF Health News’ “The NIH Ices a Research Project. Is It Self-Censorship?” by Darius Tahir.
Also mentioned in this week’s episode:
KFF Health News’ ‘What the Health?’Episode Title: On Abortion Rights, Ohio Is the New KansasEpisode Number: 309Published: Aug. 10, 2023
[Editor’s note: This transcript, generated using transcription software, has been edited for style and clarity.]
Julie Rovner: Hello and welcome back to “What the Health?” I’m Julie Rovner, chief Washington correspondent for KFF Health News, and I’m joined by some of the best and smartest health reporters in Washington. We’re taping a day early this week, on Wednesday, Aug. 9, at 3:30 p.m. As always, news happens fast, and things might have changed by the time you hear this. So here we go. We are joined today via video conference by Joanne Kenen of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and Politico.
Joanne Kenen: Hey, everybody.
Rovner: Rachel Roubein of The Washington Post.
Rachel Roubein: Hi, everybody.
Rovner: And my colleague and editor here at KFF Health News Emmarie Huetteman.
Emmarie Huetteman: Hey, everyone. Glad to be here.
Rovner: So later in this episode, we’ll have my interview with Kate McEvoy, executive director of the National Association of Medicaid Directors. She’s got her pulse on how that big post-public health emergency “Medicaid unwinding” is going. And she’ll share some of that with us. But first, this week’s news. I guess the biggest news of the week is out of Ohio, which, in almost a rerun of what happened in Kansas almost exactly a year ago, voters soundly defeated a ballot issue that would have made it harder for other voters this fall to reverse the legislature’s strict abortion ban. If you’re having trouble following that, so did they in Ohio. [laughs] This time, the fact that the abortion rights side won wasn’t as much of a surprise because every statewide abortion ballot question has gone for the abortion rights side since Roe v. Wade was overturned last year. What do we take away from Ohio? Other than it looked a lot like … the split looked a lot like Kansas. It was almost 60-40.
Kenen: It shows that there’s a coalition around this issue that is bigger than Democrat or Republican. Ohio was the classic swing state that has turned into a conservative Republican-voting state — not on this issue. This was clearly independents, moderate Republicans joined Democrats to … 60-40, roughly, is a pretty big win. Yes, we’ve seen it in other states. It’s still a pretty big win.
Roubein: I agree. And I think one of my colleagues, Patrick Marley, and I spent some time just driving around and traveling Ohio in July. And one of the things that we did find is that — this ballot measure to increase the threshold for constitutional amendments is 60% — it had in some, in many, ways turned into a proxy war over abortion. But, in some ways, both sides also didn’t talk about abortion when they were, you know, canvassing different voters. You know, they use different tools in the toolbox. I was following around someone from Ohio Right to Life and, you know, he very much said, “Abortion is the major issue to me.” But, you know, they tried to kind of bring together the side that supported this. Other issues like legalizing marijuana and raising the minimum wage, and, you know, the abortion rights side was very much a part of, you know, the opposition here. But when some canvassers went out — my colleague Patrick had traveled and followed some, and some, you know, kind of focused on other issues like, you know, voters having a voice in policy and keeping a simple majority rule.
Rovner: Yeah, I think it’s important — for those who have not been following this as closely as we have — what the ballot measure was was to make future ballot measures — and they said they were not going to have them in August anymore, which, this was the last one — in order to amend the constitution by referendum, you would need a 60% majority rather than a 50% majority. And just coincidentally, there is an abortion ballot measure on Ohio’s ballot for November, and it’s polling at about 58%. But, yes, this would have applied to everything, and it was defeated.
Kenen: And it’s part of a larger trend. It began before the overturning of Roe v. Wade. Over the last couple of years, you’ve seen conservative states move to tighten these rules for ballot initiatives. And that’s because more liberal positions have been winning. I mean, Medicaid, the Medicaid expansion on the ballot, has won, and won big. Only one was even close …
Rovner: In very red states!
Kenen: They often won very big in a number of very, very conservative states, places like Idaho and Nebraska. So, you know, there’s always been … the conventional wisdom is that, you know, the political parties are more extreme than many voters, that the Democratic Party is for the left and the Republican Party is for the right. And there are a lot of people who identify with one party or the other but aren’t … who are more moderate or, in this case, more liberal on Medicaid. And Medicaid … what was it, seven states? I think it’s seven. Seven really conservative states. And then the abortion has won in every single state. And there’s a little bit of conversation and it’s … very early. And I don’t know if it’s going to go anywhere, but if I’ve heard it and written a bit about it, conservative lawmakers have heard about it, too, which is there are groups interested in trying to get some gun safety initiatives on ballots. So that’s complicated. And it may not happen. But they’re seeing, I mean, that’s the classic example of both a criminal justice and a public health issue — so we can talk about it — a classic example where the country is much more in the center.
Rovner: Well, let us move to Texas, because that’s where we always end up when we talk about abortion. You may remember that lawsuit where several women who nearly died from pregnancy complications sued the state to clarify when medical personnel are able to intercede without being subjected to fines and/or jail sentences. Well, the women won, at least for a couple of days. A Texas district judge who heard the case ruled in their favor, temporarily blocking the Texas ban for women with pregnancy complications. But then the state appealed, and a Texas appeals court blocked the lower-court judge’s blocking of part of the ban. If you didn’t follow that, it just means that legally nothing has changed in Texas. And now the case goes to the Texas Supreme Court, which has a conservative majority. So we pretty much know what’s going to happen. But whether these women ultimately win or lose their case may not be the most important thing. And, to explain why I’m going to do my extra credit early this week. It’s by my KFF Health News colleague Sarah Varney. It’s called “How the Texas Trial Changed the Story of Abortion Rights in America.” She writes that this trial was particularly significant because it put abortion foes on the defensive by graphically depicting harm to women of abortion bans — rather than to fetuses. And it’s also about the power of people publicly telling their stories. I’ve done a lot of stories over the years about women whose very wanted pregnancies went very wrong, very late. And, I have to tell you, it’s been hard to find these women. And when you find them, it’s been really hard to get them to talk to a journalist. So, the fact that we’re seeing more and more people actually come out publicly, you know, may do for this issue what, you know, perhaps what gay rights, you know, what people coming out as gay did for gay marriage? I don’t know. What do you guys think?
Kenen: Well, I think these stories have been really compelling, but they’re also, they’re the most dramatic and maybe easiest to push back. But it’s, you know, there’s a whole lot of other reasons women want abortions. And the focus — and it’s life and death, so the focus, quite rightfully, has to be on these really extreme cases. But that’s not … it’s still in some ways shifting attention from the larger political discussion about choice and rights. But, clearly, some of these states, we’ve seen so many stories of women who, their lives are at stake, their doctors know it, and they just don’t think they have the legal power; they’re afraid of the consequences if they’re second-guessed. There are tremendous financial and imprisonment [risks] for a doctor who is deemed to have done an unnecessary abortion. And this idea that’s taken hold … among some conservatives is that there’s never a need for a medical abortion. And that’s just not true.
Rovner: And yet, I mean, what this trial and a lot of things in Sarah’s piece too point out is that that line between miscarriage and abortion is really kind of fuzzy in a lot of cases. You know, if you go to the hospital with a miscarriage and they’re going to say, “Well, did you initiate this miscarriage?” And we’ve seen women thrown in jail before for losing pregnancies, with them saying, “You know, you threw yourself down the stairs to end this pregnancy.” That actually happened, I think it was in Indiana. So this is —
Kenen: And miscarriage is very common.
Rovner: That was what I was saying.
Kenen: Early miscarriage is very common. Very, very common.
Huetteman: One of the things that’s so striking about the past year, since Dobbs overturned Roe v. Wade ,is that we’ve seen this kind of national education about what pregnancy is and how dangerous it can be and how care needs to really be flexible to meet those sorts of challenges. And this actually got me thinking about something that another familiar voice on this podcast, Alice Miranda Ollstein, and some colleagues wrote this morning about the Ohio outcome, which is they pointed out that the anti-abortion movement really hasn’t evolved in terms of the arguments that they’re making in the past year about why abortion should continue to be less and less available. Meanwhile, we’ve got these, like, really incredible, really emotional, moving stories from women who have experienced this firsthand. And that’s a hard message to overcome when you’re trying to reach voters in particular.
Rovner: And it’s interesting; both sides like to take — you know, they all go to the hardest cases. So, for years and years, the anti-abortion side has, you know, has gone to the hardest cases. And that’s why they talk about abortion in the ninth month up till birth, which isn’t a thing, but they talk about it. And you know, now the abortion rights side has some hard cases now that abortions are harder to get. Well, while we are on the subject of Texas lawsuits, States Newsroom — and thank you for sending this my way, Joanne — has a story reporting that the publisher of the scientific paper that both the lower court judge and the appeals court judges used to conclude that the abortion drug mifepristone causes frequent complications — it does not — is being reviewed for potential scientific misconduct. The paper comes from the Charlotte Lozier Institute, which is the research arm of the anti-abortion group the Susan B. Anthony List. Sage, which is the publisher of the journal that the paper appeared in, has posted something called an expression of concern, saying that the publisher and editor, quote, “were alerted to potential issues regarding the representation of data in the article and author conflicts of interest. SAGE has contacted the authors of this article and an investigation is underway.” This was sort of a whistleblower by a pharmacist who looked at the way the data in this paper was put together and says, “No, that’s really very misleading.” I don’t think I’ve ever seen this, though; I’ve never seen a scientific paper that’s now being questioned for its political bent, a peer-reviewed scientific paper. I mean, this could change a lot of things, couldn’t it?
Kenen: Well, not if people decide that they still think it’s true. I mean, look at — you know, the vaccine autism paper was retracted. That wasn’t initially political. It’s become more political over the years; it wasn’t political at the time. That was retracted. And people have been jumping up and down screaming, “It was retracted! It was retracted!” And, you know, millions of people still believe it. So, I mean, legally, I’m not sure how much it changes. I mean, I thought we had all heard that there were flaws in this study. This article was good because I hadn’t been aware of how deeply flawed and in all the many ways it was flawed. And also the whistleblower yarn was interesting. I’m not sure how much it changes anything.
Rovner: Well, I’m thinking not in terms of this case. And by the way, I think we didn’t say this, that the study was of emergency room visits by women who’d had either surgical or medical abortions. And the contention was that medical abortions were more dangerous than surgical abortions because more women ended up in the emergency room. But as several people have pointed out, more people ended up in the emergency room after medical abortions because there have been so many more medical abortions over the years. I mean, you don’t actually have to be a data scientist to see some of the problems.
Kenen: Right. And some of them also weren’t that — really, were nervous, and they didn’t know what was normal and they went to the ER because they were scared and they really were safe. They were not — they didn’t need — you know, they just weren’t sure how much pain and discomfort or bleeding you’re supposed to have. And they went and they were reassured and were sent home. So it’s not even that they really had a medical emergency or that they were harmed.
Rovner: Or that they had a complication.
Kenen: Right. There were many flaws pointed out with this research.
Rovner: But my broader question is, I mean, if people are going to start questioning the politics of scientific papers, I mean, I could see the other side going after this.
Kenen: Well, there’s climate science, too, that’s bad. I mean, I don’t think this is actually unique. I think it’s egregious. But there were studies minimizing the risk of smoking, which was also a political business, commercial. Climate is certainly political. I mean, I think this is sort of the most politicized and most acute example, but I don’t think it’s the only one.
Roubein: And I think, Julie, as you’d mentioned, I think when [U.S. District Judge] Matthew Kacsmaryk in Texas came down with his decision — you know, for instance, there are media outlets — that my colleagues at the Post did a story just kind of unpacking some of the kind of flaws and some of the studies that were used to make, you know, a court decision.
Rovner: Yeah, to give the judge what he assumes to be evidence that this is a dangerous drug. So it’s — yeah.
Kenen: Which he came in believing, we know, from the profiles of him and his background.
Rovner: Right. All right, well, let us move on. The official Census Bureau estimate of how many people lack health insurance won’t be out until next month. But the Department of Health and Human Services is out with a report based on that other big federal population survey that shows the uninsured rate early this year was at its lowest level since records started being kept, which I think was in the 1980s: 7.7%. Now, that’s clearly going to be the high point for the fewest number of people uninsured, at least for a while, because clearly not all of the millions of people who are losing or about to lose their Medicaid coverage are going to end up with other insurance. But I remember — Joanne, you will, too — when the rate was closer to 18% … was a huge news story, and the thing that triggered the whole health reform debate in the first place. I’m surprised that there’s been so little attention paid to this.
Kenen: Because, you know … [unintelligible] … it’s so yesterday. And also, as you alluded to, you know, we’re in the middle of the Medicaid unwinding. So the numbers are going up again now. And we don’t know. We know that it’s a couple of million people. I think 3 million might be the last —
Rovner: I think it’s 4 [million], it’s up to 4.
Kenen: Four, OK. And some of them will get covered again and some of them will find other sources of coverage. But right now, there’s an uptick, not a downtick.
Roubein: And I think when you look at just, like, estimates of what the insured and the uninsured rates would be in 2030, like, the CMS’ [Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services] analysis, one of the other questions is, you know, whether the enhanced Obamacare subsidies continue past 2025. So there’s Medicaid and then there’s also..