Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Good day everyone!

I will be out of the office from 27 June through 29 June.  I will resume updates on both systems upon my return.

Please note!  In regard to the severe weather forecasts, I will try to have them back for ENHANCED areas or above, once some of the models I use for analysis come back up.  They are still down, and contain information I use to provide a more accurate forecast.

Please use the following links regarding severe weather activity:

SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

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Due to the amount of weather groups I belong to, and emails I have to send out, I am not able to post to everyone personally.  In posting personally, it takes about 1 hour to get my information out to everybody.  Thanks for your understanding.

The following is my outlook forecast for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
STORM W’s SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 23 – 26
TOTAL HURRICANES :      12 – 15
MAJOR HURRICANES:        6 – 8

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

SEASON TOTALS
NAMED STORMS:           1
HURRICANES:                 0
MAJOR HURRICANES:  0

The following are the storm names for the 2024 hurricane season.  As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:

For those who have followed my over the years, you know as a system approaches the islands, or the U.S. coast, the updates tend to become longer.  However the information is critical, and includes links to the NHC watch and warning areas with information regarding hazards affecting land such as wind, storm surge, rainfall, surf, tornadoes, and specific areas along with any changes to the advisory hazards.  I also post storm surge maps from SLOSH data software, forecast rainfall, watch and warnings maps, etc.  I will also post in general as part of the forecast, animated model maps of the system, current steering layer, etc.  In the meantime, I did a little change, and have posted very good hurricane preparedness links to the site.  Please click the following link to access this information.
https://stormw.wordpress.com/stormws-toolbox/

The NHC has designated the CATL wave as INVEST 95L
Based on the 18Z ATCF BTK report, the following was available on INVEST 94L
2:00 PM EDT Wed Jun 26
Location: 10.0°N; 30.5°W
Moving: W at 20 mph
Min pressure: 1012 mb / 29.88 in
Max sustained: 25 mph
INVEST 95L IR AND SWIR SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY


Analysis of current CIMSS wind shear product and precipitable water, indicated a radial shear pattern over the center of 95L and increasing TPW.
CIMSS WIND SHEAR AND TPW

Since this was just recently designated, guidance products were still being produced at the time of my analysis.  However based on the ATCF BTK report, and analysis of the current and forecast steering maps, INVEST 95L should continue on a general W to north of due west track during the next 4 – 5 days.  Right now, as this enters the Caribbean, the possibility does exist that a more pronounced bend to the WNW motion COULD occur as the system feels a weakness in the ridge over FL. down the road.  This will be revisited in each update, as these conditions have been known to change in as little as 24 hours.  For the moment, I prefer the ECMWF Ensemble guidance.

Based on analysis current satellite loop imagery, it appears 95L is becoming slowly better defined, with a small increase in convection.  At hour 36 in the forecast period from 12Z, forecast conditions are to become more favorable for development, and by hour 96 as this approaches the Lesser Antilles, forecast conditions are forecast to be very favorable, with a radial shear pattern over the center of the system, high values of precipitable water (PWAT) and high values (very favorable) of RH (Relative Humidity) from the  850 mb to 500 mb level.  Albeit not optimal, the 200 mb streamline forecast indicates some outflow, west of the center of the system.  I will be utilizing the ECMWF forecast maps, however the GFS and CMC models indicate exactly the same forecast conditions…identically!  This, along with very high OHC (Ocean Heat Content) would tend to favor steady intensification.  Based on this, it would not surprise me to see Tropical Storm BERYL develop prior to the system crossing into the Caribbean Sea.  Cyclone Formation Probability Guidance seems to suggest this.
ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES, WIND SHEAR, RELATIVE HUMIDITY, PWAT, AND 200 MB OUTFLOW FORECAST MAPS (black circle represents center of the storm)





OCEAN HEAT CONTENT

ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION


TROPICAL STORM PROBABILITY