Disclaimer:  This is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

The following is my outlook forecast for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 11– 14
TOTAL HURRICANES :        5 – 6
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

SEASON TOTALS
NAMED STORMS:          4
HURRICANES:                0
MAJOR HURRICANES: 0

The following are the storm names for the 2023 hurricane season.  As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:

Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harold Idalia Jose Katia
Lee Margot Nigel Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney

Good evening everyone!

I want to touch on DON one last time.  DON DID become the first hurricane of the season.  Albeit briefly.  Upon my analysis of about a week ago (?), when DON had been designated as sub-tropical (which he was), then began to fall apart, analysis of many parameters indicated a post tropical system, hence my opinion at the time.  Having made his way over warmer SST’s and lower shear, the system was able to recover and a second analysis did indicate it became purely tropical.  Favorable conditions conditioned, and DON was able to attain CAT 1 hurricane status for a brief period.  He has since weakened to a Tropical Storm.  Although SST’s were around 25C – 26C which is just under the threshold, the ELR was most likely steep enough to allow for convective development and subsequent strengthening.

Elsewhere, INVEST 95L is struggling to hang on.  The NHC has lowered the probability for development during the next 7 days to MEDIUM (40%).
NHC 7 DAY GTWO

INVEST 95L SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY


You’ll notice in the loop imagery, that 95L has a broad circulation, and based on the water vapor loop, and the presence of some arc clouds, 95L is being affected somewhat by the surrounding dry air.  Although wind shear is weak to virtually nil over the area, the system lacks any upper level outflow, with upper level winds only out of the east.  As of the 2:00 p.m. EDT ATCF BTK report, the following was available on 95L:
2:00 P.M. EDT Sun Jul 23
Location: 10.6°N; 47.3°W
Moving:W 14 mph
Min pressure:1012 mb / 29.88 in
Max sustained:30 mph

95L is currently moving toward the west based on loop imagery and current steering layer mean.  Based on analysis of forecast steering, I expect this motion to continue for the next 24 – 36 hours, with more of a WNW motion thereafter.  This is shown in the 18Z ATCF track guidance.  At this time, I prefer the TVCA forecast track.
ATCF 18Z 95L TRACK GUIDANCE

INVEST 95L has maximum sustained winds of 30 mph based on the latest report.  Analysis of intensity guidance indicates the majority of the intensity models bring this to a minimal tropical storm.  Based on the recent ECMWF EPS cyclone formation probability forecast, the models indicates the best prob. to be within the next 72 – 120 hours, after the system enters the Caribbean Sea, near south America.  In order for this to occur, 95L must survive the drier air, become more consolidated, and begin firing convection.  Could this possibly become a Tropical Storm?  It is possible, however at the moment I believe it may be a low confidence call.  Based on analysis of the ECMWF regarding moisture, wind shear, and upper level winds forecast, conditions are forecast to be marginal at best, with an increase in wind shear out of the north and NNW, lack of any effective outflow, and lower RH values at the mid level of about 40% – 50% when the system reaches the point shown on the ECMWF EPS probability map.  When trying to get development of a system, the RH values up to the mid level should be around 60% at the minimum.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY FORECAST

ECMWF MSLP ANOMALY, RH, PWAT, WIND SHEAR, AND 200 MB FORECAST





Elsewhere, I’m still monitoring the tropical wave south of the Cape Verde islands.  The wave appears to be drifting toward the west, and I expect this motion to continue for about 48 – 60 hours.  Thereafter, a more WNW course should ensue, as the subtropical ridge weakens and begins to move eastward, becoming more oriented more ESE to WNW.
EATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGES