Disclaimer:  This is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

The following is my outlook forecast for the upcoming 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 11– 14
TOTAL HURRICANES :        5 – 6
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

SEASON TOTALS
NAMED STORMS:          1
HURRICANES:                0
MAJOR HURRICANES: 0

The following are the storm names for the 2023 hurricane season.  As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:

Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harold Idalia Jose Katia
Lee Margot Nigel Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney

In analysis this afternoon, the NHC has increased the probability for cyclone formation over the next 7 days to HIGH (90%):
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED)

WEATHERNERDS SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY



As of 18Z  (2:00 P.M. EDT), the following information was available on INVEST 92L:
LOCATED: 9.7N;34.0W
MOTION: W 18 MPH
MAX. SUS. WIND: 30 MPH
MINIMUM PRESSURE: 1010 MB / 29.82 IN.
INVEST 92L continue to move to the west.  Based on analysis of current and forecast steering, I expect this motion to continue for at least the next 36 hours.  Thereafter, a track more toward the WNW should occur as some of the modeling indicates a weakness to develop in the subtropical ridge, which has been shown more pronounced in the GFS.  While the GFS indicates a stronger “break” in the ridge, forecast track guidance has shifted more toward the west, bringing the system closer to the Lesser Antilles.   In the  current model runs, the ECMWF now brings it through the Lesser Antilles, as well as the CMC model, while the GFS and GFDL recurve the system.  Based on the westward shift in the guidance models, I am more apt to go with the ECMWF and CMC solutions, or possible blend.  Given this, I prefer the TVCA / TVCE consensus model tracks at the moment.  Please note, these have been very accurate during the past 3 seasons.
RAL 18Z TRACK GUIDANCE

ECMWF, CMC, AND GFS  MSLP ANOMALY FORECAST LOOP



Based on analysis of the wind shear forecast, 200 mb streamline forecast, 500 mb RH, and PWAT, forecast conditions have not changed, and in fact, are forecast to improve ever so slightly again.  The ECMWF still indicates a favorable radial wind shear pattern over the system for the next 48 – 72 hours, with a more improved 200 mb upper pattern indicating a decent outflow channel, even though not optimal.   Based on this analysis, we could see INVEST 92L become more organized, and within 24 – 30 hours from 12Z, INVEST 92L could become a depression.  Based on these forecast conditions and forecast intensity guidance, we could see Tropical Storm BRET within the next 36 hours, with the possibility of the system becoming a CATEGORY 1 hurricane during the next 72 – 96 hours, given the forecast conditions mentioned are forecast to remain favorable, right up until the system gets very close to the Lesser Antilles.  Thereafter, wind shear is forecast to increase to unfavorable levels, and weakening should begin.  ALL intensity guidance modeling except 2 models, bring this system to CAT 1 hurricane strength.  I CANNOT safely rule this out at the moment.  The following graphics represent the forecast parameters mentioned above:
ECMWF WIND SHEAR FORECAST

ECMWF 200 MB STREAMLINE FORECAST

ECMWF 500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST

ECMWF PWAT FORECAST

RAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE