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It would be incredibly easy to look at a strange night at the Gabba and draw some quite sizeable conclusions.

Collingwood’s bubble has burst, would be one of them. Brisbane, after an 33-point win after a week of media criticism, are back as a premiership contender, is another you can probably expect to see. And most obviously – the question of whether the Pies, after three weeks as the presumptive flag favourite across most of the footy world, have been worked out.

No side in footy history has been perfect – the Pies have weaknesses, and someone at some point was going to exploit them. Brisbane certainly did on Thursday night. But there’s a difference in knowing what works against Collingwood, and actually pulling it off. Not every team will be able to do what the Lions managed.

That’s also not to say that the Lions are outstanding – far from it. They played as high-risk high-reward a game as I can remember, one as far removed as possible from the lethargic, no-risk footy they slogged through in last week’s loss to the Western Bulldogs.

That it worked will leave them not just immune to criticism, but praised for ingenuity: had it not, their forwards would likely have been slammed for cheating out the back rather than presenting towards the ball, the running defenders criticised for pressing too high, and the midfield for being too aggressive with their kicking and inviting turnovers.

So let’s just say this, for now: Brisbane were excellent, the Magpies unable to go with them, and none of it gave even the slightest indication it could be emulated.

On another day, the Pies don’t kick for goal as waywardly in the final quarter and make a game of it, or the Lions fumble once or twice on the counterattack and allow the Magpies time and space to get back and fill dangerous space. We probably don’t give enough to how even in comfortable victories, fundamentals like poor kicking for goal or the odd dodgy pass can have on a game.

Previously in 2023, the Pies have made an art form of winning all those moments, kicking superbly for goal when it truly mattered, and gathering momentum with every contest win and every fast break. They didn’t get that on Thursday night, and it left them incapable of addressing the Lions’ 10 goals to nil surge on either side of half time that decided the match.

The elephant in the room was always going to be the Magpies’ lack of a ruckman; in the end, though, they outscored the Lions from stoppages and won centre clearances 12-14. Daniel McStay’s comfortable hitout loss to Oscar McInerney wasn’t the deciding factor in this game, and nor was his absence up forward, with Brody Mihocek seemingly relishing the extra space and playing his best game of footy since at least 2021.

Not every McInerney tap was as poor as the one below, but it wasn’t like he was Max Gawning it down Lachie Neale’s throat every two minutes.

The ultimate difference was the Pies going from the third-best contested possession team after three rounds of the 21st century, to losing the count, albeit narrowly 137-136.

Tom Mitchell, so industrious at the coalface in his first three games in black and white, was sat on by a team combination of Jarrod Berry and Josh Dunkley – of his 20 disposals, just five were contested and only two clearances, robbing the Pies of one of their biggest ball-winners at the source.

Ditto Steele Sidebottom, a winger in name only for the first few rounds, whom the Lions nullified by forcing him to defend wider; winning it at the source, Darcy Wilmot, shifted up the ground, constantly fanned wide, forcing Sidebottom to chase with the Pies not in possession.

Again, high risk, and while Wilmot hardly touched it – just eight possessions in his sacrificial role, albeit with a goal – Sidebottom had just 12 disposals, half of them in the final term with the Pies going for broke, and just one kick to three quarter time.

That put extra pressure on Jordan De Goey to win his own ball, rather than the Dustin Martin-style all out attack dog role he’s performed exceptionally to start the year. 21 disposals and one goal is a stat line you’d take every week with a player of De Goey’s stature – six clearances and 13 contested possessions, while still a fine game, is definitely where you’d rather him getting his footy.

It was only when Nick Daicos was injected onto the ball for a 16-disposal, four-clearance third quarter (I’ve seen some critics of his game and of him getting cheap touches in recent weeks. May I present this game to kill all future arguments) that the Pies began to turn the screw; it was no coincidence the second it happened, the Pies won the contested possession count by 8 for the rest of the quarter, and with it got their running game going again for three of the last four goals for the quarter.

On the other side of the coin, the Lions were clean and efficient: those traits are basically Lachie Neale’s default settings, Josh Dunkley’s big body was too much for the Magpies to handle over the ball with seven clearances and 14 contested possessions, and with 11 and 16 (both match-highs), McInerney was at his best when he shoved McStay or Ash Johnson out of the way, grabbed the ball and either dished off to a running midfielder or bashed it long himself.

Just as impressive was Will Ashcroft; it’s one thing for a youngster to win the hard ball, but his composure in traffic was a sight to behold. Seldom wasting a possession, his 26 disposals, five clearances and 11 contested possessions are numbers from a hardened midfield warrior, not a third-gamer. It was the sort of game I remember Trent Cotchin playing a lot of before he sacrificed his game to become a triple-premiership captain instead of a Brownlow contender.

Winning the hard ball isn’t vital for the Magpies – they were near the bottom of the tree in that stat last year and still turned out fine – but losing it means their ability to score now centres on playing counterattacking footy out of their defence. That invites risk by positioning offensively, further up the ground, and the Lions had a plan to make them pay for it.

I lost count of how many goals the Lions scored out the back – marking balls kicked over the Magpies’ defensive press close to goal and making no mistake from set shots. I’ll watch the highlights again to be sure, but my standing count is at 11.

Charlie Cameron, with six goals, was a colossal beneficiary – too fast for Isaac Quaynor, he spent most of the night as the Lions’ deepest forward, but far further afield than a usual deepest forward tends to sit. If the ball was in the Pies’ attacking 50, he’d find himself on the wing or even higher; then, when the turnover happened, off he’d dash, sprinting to goal, with full confidence his team wouldn’t turn it over.

Even if a stoppage was forced in midfield, the Lions would keep space open in their forward line, pushing an extra player around the ball, setting Joe Daniher to play as an old-fashioned centre-half forward – a task, by the way, he performed superbly – and setting free leading lanes for Eric Hipwood to run into, rather than needing to battle defenders one-on-one with the ball sat on his head as he did against the Bulldogs.

Oh, and there was also Cam Rayner.

I’ve been baffled all season by the Rayner move to half-back, and tonight I’m even more so. Best afield by the length of the straight, the 2017 No.1 pick just looks so much more assured of his role ahead of the ball.

He’s strong – two of his shots at goal were set up by strong pack marks, including a speccy in the first term to get the Lions going after some early Magpies dominance. He’s not an elite endurance runner and probably never will be, but as a burst player he’s just as dynamic as De Goey or even mid-career, pre-Brownlow and Norms Dustin Martin.

He’s an exceptionally smart footballer in an old-fashioned way, a way poorly suited to the smart ball use and quick thinking required to be a half-back. Rayner is a player built on instinct, and here’s hoping he’s able to use those traits in attack for the rest of the season. Please, Chris Fagan.

Daniher’s move further afield was almost as influential: not only did it leave ample space in attack for Cameron and Hipwood to work their magic, but I’ve seldom see him play with more confidence.

Joe’s weaknesses are clear – just ask Essendon fans. He shanks set shots, he doesn’t defend, he drifts in and out of games. He’s just about the only key forward to fit that tired old cliche of putting them into the ruck to try and get the footy in his hands.

With Darcy Fort partnering McInerney last week, Daniher sat deep in attack for the whole game. He missed a swathe of shots in the first quarter, and never looked likely again. Liam Jones outbodied him frequently under the high ball, and the Lions’ stodgy ball movement gave him few chances to get a run and jump at the footy.

Further afield, he went from the final link in the chain to being a key distributor. His six inside 50s were an equal game-high, and four of them came in the first half. With 13 touches in that half as well, no player on the ground had had it more – remarkable for a key forward.

Around the ground, he competed as well as he has for quite some time, reeling in two important contested marks, including one in the last quarter off a high ball coming out of defensive 50 that could easily have been punted back in by the Pies. Whenever he moved closer to goal, Darcy Moore seemed drawn to him as well, and saw him function almost as a decoy, with other forwards finding space away from the Pies’ intercept king to take 16 marks inside 50.

Rayner won’t always have a day out like this; Daniher won’t always look so damaging up the ground; Cameron won’t always kick six goals by doing exactly what pundits have hated forwards doing for generations. But that doesn’t make it any less impressive they were able to pull it off against the premiership favourites.

Defensively, the Lions looked far better suited to putting pedal to the metal – yes, the Pies could have punished them even further had they kicked accurately, especially later, but part of beating Collingwood will be needing to outscore them.

Conor McKenna, especially early, had his best game as a Lion; freed to dash off half-back, he and Keidean Coleman had 25 touches and more than 500 metres gained between them for the first half, and just as importantly, got it forward quickly.

So there you have it. That’s how you beat Collingwood. Smash them for contested ball, move it quickly and with purpose, hit your targets, get your out-of-form key forward playing like Gary Dempsey, tell your fastest small to sneak out the back, get your half-back to turn into a contested-marking forward, and then hope they kick inaccurately too.

Simple, right?