ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided. Keep in mind, if a forecast doesn’t exactly pan out, remember, the atmosphere is fluid in motion. When models are being analyzed, that’s just one run, and I have to go with what is presented. After that, models don’t update again for another 4 – 6 hours, so, what happens between that time is unknown, and forecast conditions can change slightly, to greatly. This will have an effect on my actual forecast. Unless otherwise noted, satellite imagery is provided through Weathernerds.org
The following is my outlook forecast for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14– 16
TOTAL HURRICANES : 5 – 7
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3 – 4
AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES: 7
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
SEASON TOTALS:
NAMED STORMS: 19
HURRICANES: 7
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
The following are the storm names for the 2023 hurricane season. As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:
Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harold Idalia Jose Katia
Lee Margot Nigel Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney
Greetings everyone!
As a reminder, when forecasting tropical systems, if there are numerous systems to deal with, I always update on the systems that may present an impact or threat to either the U. S. or the Caribbean islands. Anything far out in the Atlantic or something that may re-curve, take a lower priority as there is more time to deal with them. Unless we have a system threatening any area, the forecast office will be closed on the weekends.
The NHC had re-classified TAMMY as tropical. However, I have to disagree as analysis of current wind shear maps, and AMSU (Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit) data indicated otherwise. The system is currently sheared under 35 kts of wind shear, and the last AMSU update which was at 2315Z on the 26th indicated TAMMY was cold core from the surface up to around the 600 – 500 mb level, and was still attached to the tail end of the frontal boundary that she merged with. This will be my last anything on “TAMMY”.
TAMMY IR LOOP
FINAL AMSU DATA (VERTICAL LINE INDICATES APPROXIMATE CENTER)
TAFB 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS (CLICK GRAPHIC FOR LARGER MAP)
Elsewhere, I am monitoring a broad area of low pressure in the south central Caribbean Sea, which the NHC has designated a LOW (20%) probability for development. Analysis of both the ECMWF and GFS global models are indicating the same forecast conditions. Analysis of forecast wind shear maps indicate the environment should remain marginal at best which could allow for some slow development during the next 48 – 72 hours. Forecast conditions become unfavorable right around the 48 hour period in the forecast. The following animations do show both models indicating development of a weak surface low, however by that time, the environment may be more of a baroclinic setup. The animations following that are from the ECMWF and indicate drier air entrainment once the feature gets north of the Greater Antilles, and increased wind shear. I will be monitoring the area for the next 2 days, however unless forecast conditions change, I’m not expecting much at the moment. The only thing going for it is, it will be under the influence of the right rear entrance region of the jet.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO
ECMWF AND GFS MSLP ANOMALY FORECAST
ECMWF PWAT, WIND SHEAR, AND 500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST
ECMWF 200 MB JETSTREAK
The ECMWF EPS cyclone probability forecast currently indicates a higher probability of a tropical depression once this appears to move. out of the Caribbean:
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