Disclaimer: This is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.
The outlined maps you were used to seeing from my F5 DATA software, are no longer around and operational. This means I have lost quite a bit of data to analyze but I will try to make the severe weather forecasts as accurate and understandable as possible.
CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK CONVERSION TABLE FOR DAY 1 OUTLOOKS
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), has issued an ENHANCED risk of severe thunderstorms: THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA SOUTHWARD TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS…
…SPC SUMMARY…
A few tornadoes, including a couple of strong tornadoes, isolated very large hail (greater than 2 inch diameter) and isolated wind damage will be possible, mainly this afternoon/evening from northeast Kansas/southeast Nebraska into western Missouri, eastern Oklahoma, western Arkansas, and northeast Texas.
SPC DAY 1 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK MAPS (first image linked to current SPC outlook. Click for any updated outlook maps)
TORNADO PROBABILITY
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 – EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
HAIL PROBABILITY
Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS PROBABILITY
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
QLCS activity was already ongoing, with a Tornado Watch issued in TX.
The forecast is a little more complex today, with the issuance of 2 an extended ENHANCED risk outline, and extended significant hail and tornado outline. Based on my analysis of the current outlook, CIPS, NAM 3km, HRRR, and SPC SREF forecast models, information derived from forecast indices indicate all severe threats are probable. Based on the complexity of the forecast, I highly recommend reading the outlook text. The highest threat at time of analysis appears to be some significant tornado activity, significant hail, and damaging wind gusts. Tornadoes will be a threat mainly within the ENHANCED area, however based on some of the forecast indices, could extend outside of the ENHANCED outline.. The greatest threat for tornadoes, which may be on the order of EF2+, will most likely be within and around the hatched area in the SPC tornado probability map. Based on CAPE, 0 – 3 km SRH values, shear values, along with moderately veering winds, lends credence to an isolated strong tornado threat. Significant large hail of up to 2.00″+ in diameter is possible within the same general area, given CAPE, shear, lifted indices values, and moderate to steep mid level lapse rates. Severe thunderstorms may initiate from mid afternoon through the evening hours CDT. The following were the forecast parameters and indices analyzed this morning, with the max. values pertaining to the ENHANCED risk area. Bear in mind, indices recorded below are at the time of peak intensity. Indices meanings can be accessed further on in the synopsis:
SBCAPE: 2000 – 3000+ j/kg-1
MLCAPE: 2000 –2500 j/kg-1
MUCAPE: 1500 – 2500 j/kg-1
SRH 0 -1 km: 100 – 300 m2/s2
SRH 0 -3 km: 200 – 350 m2/s2
SRH EFFECTIVE: 200 – 300 m2/s2
L. I.: -3 to -8
SCP: 5 – 13
STP: 2 – 6
0 -6 km SHEAR: 50 – 60 kts
EFF. SHEAR: 40 – 50kts
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE: 7.0 – 8.0C
DEWPOINT: 61F – 68F
EHI: 3.5 – 4.3
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX: 54 – 56C
K INDEX: 28 – 33C
SWEAT INDEX: 550 – 625
A little fact on SRH values and tornadoes from NOAA / NWS
Storm Relative Helicity (m2 s-2)
SRH (Storm Relative Helicity) is a measure of the potential for cyclonic updraft rotation in right-moving supercells, and is calculated for the lowest 1-km and 3-km layers above ground level. There is no clear threshold value for SRH when forecasting supercells, since the formation of supercells appears to be related more strongly to the deeper layer vertical shear. Larger values of 0-3-km SRH (greater than 250 m2 s-2) and 0-1-km SRH (greater than 100 m2 s-2), however, do suggest an increased threat of tornadoes with supercells. For SRH, larger values are generally better, but there are no clear thresholds between non-tornadic and significant tornadic supercells.
STP ( Significant Tornado Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A majority of significant tornadoes (EF2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.
SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH, based on Bunkers right supercell motion), most unstable parcel CAPE (muCAPE) and convective inhibition (muCIN), and effective bulk wind difference (EBWD). Each ingredient is normalized to supercell “threshold” values, and larger values of SCP denote greater “overlap” in the three supercell ingredients. Only positive values of SCP are displayed, which correspond to environments favoring right-moving (cyclonic) supercells.
SWEAT INDEX
The following are the SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) and STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) forecast maps from the NAM model. Generally, the higher the values and brighter the color, indicates a greater probability of strong thunderstorm and tornadic activity over an area:
NAM 3KM SCP FORECAST (1:00 p.m. 26 APR. – MIDNIGHT CDT 27 APR.)
NAM 3KM STP FORECAST (1:00 p.m. 26 APR. – MIDNIGHT CDT 27 APR.)
NAM PEAK SBCAPE VALUES
SPC SREF SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER >1 FORECAST 21Z
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