Disclaimer: This is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.
The outlined maps you were used to seeing from my F5 DATA software, are no longer around and operational. This means I have lost quite a bit of data to analyze but I will try to make the severe weather forecasts as accurate and understandable as possible.
Sorry I’m posting this so late. New information came out as I was finishing my initial analysis, which changed some of the forecast indices and parameters. Also, given the discrepancies between the NAM and HRRR forecast animations, I will be discontinuing them to avoid confusion. I will post them today so you can actually see the big difference.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), has issued an ENHANCED risk of severe thunderstorms OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA…ARKANSAS…EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS…AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI…
…SPC SUMMARY…
Tornadoes, large to very large hail, and strong to locally severe thunderstorm gusts are expected from parts of north-central Texas into the Midwest and Mid-South. The greatest overall severe threat still appears to be across eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas and southern Missouri.
SPC DAY 1 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK MAPS (first image linked to current SPC outlook)
TORNADO PROBABILITY
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 – EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
HAIL PROBABILITY
Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS PROBABILITY
Based on my analysis of the current outlook, CIPS forecast model, NAM model, HRRR model, and SPC SREF, information derived from forecast indices indicate all severe threats are probable.
The SPC 13Z outlook update is rather complicated, and I suggest reading it thoroughly. My synopsis will try to break it down in brief, laypersons terms
SPC 13Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK TEXT
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Based on analysis of the mentioned models, forecast indices pertain to the ENHANCED risk outline. Based on the current forecast CAPE, SRH, EHI, mid level lapse rate, and LI values, large to severe hail can be expected where the SPC hatched area exists. Based on the premise of forecast hodograph analysis, EHI, moderate to strong deep layer shear, tornadoes, (possibly strong) are a good probability. Based on the contents of the outlook, and model animations of both the NAM 3km and HRRR recent runs, strongest severe storms appear to initiate very late afternoon to early evening (just prior at or about 18 – 19Z…1:00 – 2:00 p.m. CDT). Though the still graphics from the NAM and HRRR depicting forecast significant tornado parameter (STP) indices, Based on analysis of forecast CIN (Convective INhibition) values, or lack thereof, the best probability for tornadoes should lie within the SPC 10% (AMBER) outline with the probability of strong / significant tornadoes occurring within the hatched area. However, I am not ruling out the probability of a strong tornado in the 10% outline. Although SRH doesn’t appear too high, the combination of CAPE, EHI, shear, and LI indices, along with analysis of hodographs from this mornings soundings support the SPC tornado outline. CAPE, LI, shear, and steep mid level lapse rates support the threat of large to significant hail within the SPC RED/HATCHED area in the outline.
The following were the forecast parameters and indices analyzed this morning over the risk areas.
SBCAPE: 2000 – 3500 j/kg-1
MLCAPE: 2500 – 3000 j/kg-1
MUCAPE: 2000 – 3000 j/kg-1
SRH 0 -1 km: 100 – 250 m2/s2
SRH 0 -3 km: 100 – 250 m2/s2
SRH EFFECTIVE: 100 – 200 m2/s2
L. I.: -7 to -11
STP: 2 – 4
SCP: 4 – 13
0 -6 km SHEAR: 50 – 60 kts
EFF. SHEAR: 45 – 55 kts
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE: 8.0 – 8.5C
DEWPOINT: 65F – 70F
EHI: 1.8 – 3.5
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX: 58 – 60C
K INDEX: 28 – 32C
STP ( Significant Tornado Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A majority of significant tornadoes (EF2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.
SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH, based on Bunkers right supercell motion), most unstable parcel CAPE (muCAPE) and convective inhibition (muCIN), and effective bulk wind difference (EBWD). Each ingredient is normalized to supercell “threshold” values, and larger values of SCP denote greater “overlap” in the three supercell ingredients. Only positive values of SCP are displayed, which correspond to environments favoring right-moving (cyclonic) supercells.
I am posting the following graphics for the comparison I mentioned earlier in the synopsis.
The following are the SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) and STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) forecast maps from the NAM model. Generally, the higher the values and brighter the color, indicates a greater probability of strong thunderstorm and tornadic activity over an area:
NAM STP FORECAST (3:00 p.m. CDT 14 MAR.)
HRRR STP FORECAST (3:00 p.m. CDT 14 MAR.)
Please use the following maps, which should update automatically, for Mesoscale Discussions and Convective Watches. You may have to refresh your browser, or click on the graphics. I have provided the SPC homepage link below, so you may get the updated information regarding any changes to the outlook:
SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, IMMEDIATELY TAKE STURDY AND SAFE SHELTER
The following sites will explain most of the severe weather and tornado values listed above, and will give you an idea of what to expect:
ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES AND PARAMETERS NWS
https://www.weather.gov/lmk/indices
THE WEATHER PREDICTION
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html
The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area. Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
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