Disclaimer: This is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.
The outlined maps you were used to seeing from my F5 DATA software, are no longer around and operational. This means I have lost quite a bit of data to analyze but I will try to make the severe weather forecasts as accurate and understandable as possible.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), has issued an ENHANCED risk of severe thunderstorms OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI…
…SPC SUMMARY…
Large to very large hail, severe thunderstorm gusts and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon into evening across parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. Isolated severe storms may occur late this afternoon across parts of the southern Plains.
SPC DAY 1 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK MAPS (first image linked to current SPC outlook)
TORNADO PROBABILITY
HAIL PROBABILITY
Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS PROBABILITY
Based on my analysis of the current outlook, CIPS forecast model, NAM model, HRRR model, and SPC SREF, information derived from forecast indices indicate all severe threats are probable.
The SPC 13Z outlook update is rather complicated, and I suggest reading it thoroughly. My synopsis will try to break it down in brief, laypersons terms
SPC 13Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK TEXT
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Based on analysis of the mentioned models, forecast indices pertain to the ENHANCED and portions of the SLIGHT risk outline. Based on the current forecast CAPE, SRH, EHI, mid level lapse rate, and LI values, large to severe hail can be expected where the SPC hatched area exists. Based on the premise of forecast hodograph analysis, EHI, SRH, and moderate to strong shear, tornadoes, (possibly an isolated strong tornado) are a good probability. Based on the contents of the outlook, and model animations of both the NAM 3km and HRRR recent runs, strongest severe storms appear to initiate very late afternoon to early evening (just prior to or at 00Z…7:00 p.m. CDT). One item I did note between the SPC severe risk areas and information provided by the NAM 3km, HRRR, and SPC SREF current runs, is that the modeling indicates stronger indices further south over southern Kansas into Oklahoma. These models all indicate the same scenario. Though the SPC risk areas are further north, I caution residents further south to keep a watchful eye, as I don’t think this should be ignored.
The following were the forecast parameters and indices analyzed this morning over the risk areas.
SBCAPE: 1500 – 2500 j/kg-1
MLCAPE: 1500 – 2500 j/kg-1
MUCAPE: 1500 – 2000 j/kg-1
SRH 0 -1 km: 200 – 300 m2/s2
SRH 0 -3 km: 300 – 400 m2/s2
SRH EFFECTIVE: 200 – 300 m2/s2
L. I.: -3 to -6
STP: 1 – 4
SCP: 1 – 8
0 -6 km SHEAR: 50 – 70 kts
EFF. SHEAR: 50 – 60 kts
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE: 7.5 – 8.0C
DEWPOINT: 50F – 61F
EHI: 3.0 – 5.5
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX: 52 – 57C
K INDEX: 29 – 34C
STP ( Significant Tornado Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A majority of significant tornadoes (EF2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.
SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH, based on Bunkers right supercell motion), most unstable parcel CAPE (muCAPE) and convective inhibition (muCIN), and effective bulk wind difference (EBWD). Each ingredient is normalized to supercell “threshold” values, and larger values of SCP denote greater “overlap” in the three supercell ingredients. Only positive values of SCP are displayed, which correspond to environments favoring right-moving (cyclonic) supercells.
The following are the SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) and STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) forecast maps from the NAM model. Generally, the higher the values and brighter the color, indicates a greater probability of strong thunderstorm and tornadic activity over an area:
NAM SCP FORECAST (1:00 p.m. 13 MAR. – MIDNIGHT CDT 14 MAR.)
NAM STP FORECAST (1:00 p.m. 13 MAR. – MIDNIGHT CDT 14 MAR.)
HRRR SCP FORECAST (1:00 p.m. 13 MAR. – 11:00 p.m. CDT 13 MAR.)
HRRR STP FORECAST (1:00 p.m. 13 MAR. – 11:00 p.m. CDT 13 MAR.)
SREF STP PROBABILITY (MEDIAN) 10:00 P.M. CDT
SREF STP >3
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