Disclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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Good day everyone!
I will be out of the office from May 20 through June 01 as we will be traveling to Wyoming for our grandsons high school graduation. For updates on severe weather and / or tropics, please come to this site, and use the following links for updates. I will resume tropical outlooks on June 03.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.
The outlined maps you were used to seeing from my F5 DATA software, are no longer around and operational. This means I have lost quite a bit of data to analyze but I will try to make the severe weather forecasts as accurate and understandable as possible.
CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK CONVERSION TABLE FOR DAY 1 OUTLOOKS
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), has issued an ENHANCED risk of severe thunderstorms: ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST…
…SPC SUMMARY…
Severe thunderstorms are expected today from central and east Texas across the Gulf Coast states. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes.
SPC DAY 1 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK MAPS (first image linked to current SPC outlook. Click for any updated outlook maps)
TORNADO PROBABILITY
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
HAIL PROBABILITY
Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS PROBABILITY
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point
Based on my analysis of the current outlook, CIPS, NAM 3km, and SPC SREF forecast models, information derived from forecast indices indicates all severe threats are probable. Based on analysis of severe weather indices animations from recent modeling, and the SPC outlook text, the stronger thunderstorm and severe weather activity appears to initialize from very early afternoon hours into early evening over the ENHANCED risk outline.
Based on analysis of forecast severe and tornado indices, some values like SBCAPE, MLCAPE, and lifted indices will be a little higher over the portion of the outline over Texas. The indices listed, pertain mostly to the area over the Gulf coastal region of the outline. What this implies is, significant hail in the SPC hatched hail outline, especially over Texas, could reach 2.00″ – 4.00″ in diameter. While Texas should have an overall lower tornado threat given 0 – 1 km SRH < 100 ms2/ms2, a small area of 150 – 300 ms2/ms2 0 – 3 km SRH was noted, and the greatest probability for tornadoes will lie within the 2% tornado outline over Texas, depicted in the NADOCAST tornado probability. The greater tornado threat lies within the 5% SPC tornado outline along the Gulf coast from Louisiana, eastward.
Although I am not expecting any EF2+ tornadoes, based on the listed SRH values, EHI values, combined with the forecast of a very unstable atmosphere NADOCAST suggests the possibility of EF2+. This would tend to be an isolated threat. Let me point out, this does not mean this will ABSOLUTELY occur, but that analyzed forecast conditions indicate the POSSIBILITY. I will update the NADOCAST maps once they come in.
The following were the forecast parameters and indices analyzed this morning, with the max. values pertaining to the ENHANCED risk outline. Bear in mind, indices recorded below are for the time of peak intensity. Indices meanings can be accessed further on in the synopsis:
SBCAPE: 2000 – 4000 j/kg-1 (Texas) 2000 – 3500 (LA)
MLCAPE: 2000 –3000 j/kg-1 (LA) 2000 – 4000 (TX)
MUCAPE: 2500 – 4000 j/kg-1
SRH 0 -1 km: 200 – 250 m2/s2
SRH 0 -3 km: 200 – 300 m2/s2
SRH EFFECTIVE: 100 – 300 m2/s2
L. I.: -4 to -10
SCP: 3- 10
STP: 2 – 5
0 -6 km SHEAR: 60 – 70 kts
EFF. SHEAR: 50 – 60kts
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE: 6.5 – 7.5C
DEWPOINT: 65F – 77F
EHI: 3.1 – 4.6
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX: 46 – 51C
K INDEX: 28 – 35C
SWEAT INDEX: 350 – 450
The full operational utility of the EHI is not yet completely known. In addition, there is some discrepancy as to what the minimum threshold is for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. However, general threshold values are given below.
A little fact on SRH values and tornadoes from NOAA / NWS
Storm Relative Helicity (m2 s-2)
SRH (Storm Relative Helicity) is a measure of the potential for cyclonic updraft rotation in right-moving supercells, and is calculated for the lowest 1-km and 3-km layers above ground level. There is no clear threshold value for SRH when forecasting supercells, since the formation of supercells appears to be related more strongly to the deeper layer vertical shear. Larger values of 0-3-km SRH (greater than 250 m2 s-2) and 0-1-km SRH (greater than 100 m2 s-2), however, do suggest an increased threat of tornadoes with supercells. For SRH, larger values are generally better, but there are no clear thresholds between non-tornadic and significant tornadic supercells.
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