Disclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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Good day everyone!
I will be out of the office from May 20 through June 01 as we will be traveling to Wyoming for our grandsons high school graduation. For updates on severe weather and / or tropics, please come to this site, and use the following links for updates. I will resume tropical outlooks on June 03.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.
The outlined maps you were used to seeing from my F5 DATA software, are no longer around and operational. This means I have lost quite a bit of data to analyze but I will try to make the severe weather forecasts as accurate and understandable as possible.
CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK CONVERSION TABLE FOR DAY 1 OUTLOOKS
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), has issued an ENHANCED risk of severe thunderstorms: OVER PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO…
…SPC SUMMARY…
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern High Plains into the Hill Country of central Texas this afternoon and evening. Several storms may produce very large hail, and a couple strong tornadoes are possible.
SPC DAY 1 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK MAPS (first image linked to current SPC outlook. Click for any updated outlook maps)
TORNADO PROBABILITY
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 – EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point
HAIL PROBABILITY
Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS PROBABILITY
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Based on my analysis of the current outlook, CIPS, NAM 3km, and SPC SREF forecast models, information derived from forecast indices indicate all severe threats are probable, with the highest potential being large to very large to significant hail, and possible strong tornadoes. Based on analysis of severe weather indices animations from recent modeling, and the SPC outlook text, the stronger thunderstorm and severe weather activity appears once again to occur from around 20Z and into the evening hours approximately 9:00 pm. – 10:00 p.m. CDT over the ENHANCED risk outline, and 5% tornado risk outline for Texas.
Based on the forecast of strong deep layer shear, very unstable lifted indices, moderate to steep mid level lapse rates, and large CAPE values, large to significant hail may be experienced within the SPC hail outlook hatched area. Based on pretty much the same ingredients, along with strongly veering winds, 0 – 3km SRH values, and forecast very unstable MLCAPE values, the Energy Helicity Index indicates a good probability of strong tornadoes (EF2+) occurring within the SPC ENHANCED outline and 5% tornado probability area. Based on all the values indicating a very unstable forecast environment, and range of the EHI values, I cannot rule out the possibility of an isolated EF3 – EF5 tornado occurring in the SPC 10% / hatched tornado outline.
The following were the forecast parameters and indices analyzed this morning, with the max. values pertaining to the ENHANCED risk and 5% tornado, outline. Bear in mind, indices recorded below are for the time of peak intensity which could be between 20Z – 00Z CDT (3:00 P.M. – 7:00 P.M.). Indices meanings can be accessed further on in the synopsis:
SBCAPE: 3000 – 4000 j/kg-1
MLCAPE: 2500 –3500 j/kg-1
MUCAPE: 3000 – 4000 j/kg-1
SRH 0 -1 km: 100 – 200 m2/s2
SRH 0 -3 km: 200 – 300 m2/s2
SRH EFFECTIVE: 150 – 200 m2/s2
L. I.: -6 to -9
SCP: 7 – 12
STP: 2 – 6
0 -6 km SHEAR: 50 – 60 kts
EFF. SHEAR: 45 – 50kts
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE: 7.5 – 8.0C
DEWPOINT: 62F – 70F
EHI: 3.8 – 5.0
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX: 53 – 55C
K INDEX: 28 – 36C
SWEAT INDEX: 450 – 550
The full operational utility of the EHI is not yet completely known. In addition, there is some discrepancy as to what the minimum threshold is for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. However, general threshold values are given below.
A little fact on SRH values and tornadoes from NOAA / NWS
Storm Relative Helicity (m2 s-2)
SRH (Storm Relative Helicity) is a measure of the potential for cyclonic updraft rotation in right-moving supercells, and is calculated for the lowest 1-km and 3-km layers above ground level. There is no clear threshold value for SRH when forecasting supercells, since the formation of supercells appears to be related more strongly to the deeper layer vertical shear. Larger values of 0-3-km SRH (greater than 250 m2 s-2) and 0-1-km SRH (greater than 100 m2 s-2), however, do suggest an increased threat of tornadoes with supercells. For SRH, larger values are generally better, but there are no clear thresholds between non-tornadic and significant tornadic supercells.
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