Disclaimer: This is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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The forecast office will be closed from Feb. 10 until further notice. My wife and I will be leaving for Alabama to visit my mom, who was recently diagnosed with stage 4 cancer.
I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.
The outlined maps you were used to seeing from my F5 DATA software, are no longer around and operational. This means I have lost quite a bit of data to analyze but I will try to make the severe weather forecasts as accurate and understandable as possible.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), has issued a SLIGHT risk of severe thunderstorms in the day 3 outlook: ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS…LOUISIANA…MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA…
…SPC SUMMARY…
A severe threat is expected to develop on Sunday from east Texas extending eastward across Louisiana into southern and central Mississippi, and far southwest Alabama. Damaging wind gusts, isolated large hail and tornadoes will be possible.
SPC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK MAP (LINKED…CLICK IMAGE)
Based on my analysis of the current outlook, CIPS forecast model, NAM, and SPC SREF models, all threats appear probable now. Forecast indices indicate the atmosphere to become a little more unstable on Sunday, especially during mid to late afternoon. Given the forecast of increased CAPE values, Lifted Index values, and increased mid level lapse rate, the atmosphere is forecast to be a little more unstable. The area will also be under the effect of a 80 – 100 knot mid level jet, and strengthening low level jet by mid to late afternoon. The increased indices will allow for isolated large hail. Given these parameters, in combination with an increase in deep layer shear, and SRH (Storm Relative Helicity), the threat for tornadoes is greater. I will not have access to future forecast indices, however the threshold for an isolated EF2 tornado may be reached. Putting this all together, tornado and hail activity should be the greatest within the SLIGHT risk area, and within the orange shading / black dashed outline in the SPC SREF forecast map. The following were the forecast parameters and indices analyzed this morning. Indices meanings can be accessed further on in the synopsis:
SBCAPE: 1500 – 2000 j/kg-1
MLCAPE: 1200 – 1500 j/kg-1
MUCAPE: 1500 – 2000 j/kg-1
SRH 0 – 1km: 100 – 200 m2/s2
SRH 0 – 3km: 200 – 300 m2/s2
SRH EFFECTIVE: 100 – 200 m2/s2
L. I.: -3 to -5
STP: 1 to 4
SCP: 4 to 8
0 -6 km SHEAR: 65 – 70 kts
EFF. SHEAR: 45 – 55 kts
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE: 7.0 – 7.5C
DEWPOINT: 64F – 69F
EHI: 1.7 – 2.5
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX: 50 – 52C
K INDEX: 30 – 32C
STP ( Significant Tornado Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A majority of significant tornadoes (EF2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.
SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH, based on Bunkers right supercell motion), most unstable parcel CAPE (muCAPE) and convective inhibition (muCIN), and effective bulk wind difference (EBWD). Each ingredient is normalized to supercell “threshold” values, and larger values of SCP denote greater “overlap” in the three supercell ingredients. Only positive values of SCP are displayed, which correspond to environments favoring right-moving (cyclonic) supercells.
The following are the SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) and STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) forecast maps from the NAM model. Generally, the higher the values and brighter the color, indicates a greater probability of strong thunderstorm and tornadic activity over an area:
NAM SCP FORECAST (12:00 p.m. 11 FEB. – 6:00 p.m. 11 FEB.)
NAM STP FORECAST (12:00 p.m. 11 FEB. – 6:00 p.m. 11 FEB.)
SPC SREF PROBABILITY OF STP >1
The following sites will explain most of these values, and will give you an idea of what to expect:
ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES AND PARAMETERS NWS
https://www.weather.gov/lmk/indices
THE WEATHER PREDICTION
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html
Again, I will not be available to update on this situation, so please visit the SPC homepage link above for updates, as well as the NWS map below.
The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area. Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
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