Disclaimer: This is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.
The outlined maps you were used to seeing from my F5 DATA software, are no longer around and operational. This means I have lost quite a bit of data to analyze but I will try to make the severe weather forecasts as accurate and understandable as possible.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), has issued a SLIGHT risk of severe thunderstorms in the day 2 outlook: IN SOUTH FL AND THE KEYS…
…SPC SUMMARY…
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Florida Peninsula from late morning to early evening on Sunday.
SPC DAY 2 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK MAPS (first image linked to current SPC outlook)
TORNADO PROBABILITY
HAIL PROBABILITY
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS PROBABILITY
The following were the forecast parameters and indices analyzed this morning and were noted across both the MARGINAL and SLIGHT risk area. Indices meanings can be accessed further on in the synopsis:
SBCAPE: 750 – 1250 j/kg-1
MLCAPE: 500 – 750 j/kg-1
MUCAPE: 750 – 1250 j/kg-1
SRH 0 -1 km: 200 – 300 m2/s2
SRH 0 -3 km: 300 – 400 m2/s2
SRH EFFECTIVE: 200 – 300 m2/s2
L. I.: -3 to -6
STP: 1 – 4
SCP: 3 – 6
0 -6 km SHEAR: 40 – 60 kts
EFF. SHEAR: 30 – 40 kts
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE: 7.0 – 8.0C
DEWPOINT: 62F – 68F
EHI: 1.0 – 1.6
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX: 43 – 49C
K INDEX: 24 – 33
STP ( Significant Tornado Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A majority of significant tornadoes (EF2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.
SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH, based on Bunkers right supercell motion), most unstable parcel CAPE (muCAPE) and convective inhibition (muCIN), and effective bulk wind difference (EBWD). Each ingredient is normalized to supercell “threshold” values, and larger values of SCP denote greater “overlap” in the three supercell ingredients. Only positive values of SCP are displayed, which correspond to environments favoring right-moving (cyclonic) supercells.
The indices analyzed were from the 12Z NAM run, with most being taken from the CIPS modeling. These will most likely change by morning. Since I will not be here to forecast in the morning, I highly recommend you visit the SPC site tomorrow through the link I have provided, to see the update for the day 1 outlook.
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html
Based on my analysis this morning of all available information, an MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) is forecast to push southward over the Florida Peninsula on Sunday. Showers and a few thunderstorms could initiate by late morning, with the best probability for severe thunderstorms occurring between noon and 4:00 p.m. EST, from central Florida, southward. Based on the solution from CIPS (NAM information reviewed), it aims the better probability for tornado activity more toward the SLIGHT risk outline. However, looking at the solution from the NAM 12Z animation, a good probability is also shown for central Florida, based on the SCP and STP animations. Based on some of the parameters analyzed in the forecast map, IF the forecast does not change, I would not rule out the SPC upgrading the MARGINAL risk area to a SLIGHT risk, thereby upgrading the day 1 outlook. A strong 500 mb jet will allow for strong forcing for ascent ahead of the jet. Moderately steep mid level lapse rates, and a moderately unstable environment based on the analyzed lifted index (L.I.), marginal to moderate CAPE values, should allow for hail over the outlined hail area. Deep layer shear and SRH values, along with veering winds, will provide turning or vorticity for rotating cells and isolated tornado activity.
The following are the SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) and STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) forecast maps from the NAM model. Generally, the higher the values and brighter the color, indicates a greater probability of strong thunderstorm and tornadic activity over an area:
NAM SCP FORECAST (1:00 p.m. 04 FEB. – 7:00 P.M. 04 FEB.) EST
NAM STP FORECAST (1:00 p.m. 04 FEB. – 7:00 p.m. 04 FEB.) EST
Please use the following maps, which should update automatically, for Mesoscale Discussions and Convective Watches. You may have to refresh your browser, or click on the graphics. I have provided the SPC homepage link above, so you may get the updated information regarding any changes to the outlook:
SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, IMMEDIATELY TAKE STURDY AND SAFE SHELTER
The following sites will explain most of the severe weather and tornado values listed above, and will give you an idea of what to expect:
ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES AND PARAMETERS NWS
https://www.weather.gov/lmk/indices
THE WEATHER PREDICTION
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/
The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area. Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
