Disclaimer: This is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.
The outlined maps you were used to seeing from my F5 DATA software, are no longer around and operational. This means I have lost quite a bit of data to analyze but I will try to make the severe weather forecasts as accurate and understandable as possible.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), has issued a SLIGHT risk of severe thunderstorms: FROM EAST TX TO THE TN VALLEY…
…SPC SUMMARY…
Scattered severe thunderstorms with tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail will be possible from east Texas to the Tennessee Valley, mainly Saturday afternoon and evening.
SPC DAY 2 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK MAPS
TORNADO PROBABILITY
HAIL PROBABILITY
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS PROBABILITY
Based on my analysis of the current outlook, CIPS forecast model, and NAM, all severe threats will be possible during Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Based on analysis of indices and parameters, the main threat at the moment appears to be wind and hail, although this could change by tomorrow. Given the forecast of SWLY shear, increased CAPE and Lifted Index values, residents in the slight risk and hail prob. area may experience large hail. Though tornado parameters are on the lower end, tornado activity cannot be ruled out. There is a discrepancy noted in the SPC tornado prob. outline, and the NAM output this morning. Analysis of the current NAM run suggests the greater probability of tornado activity may occur more toward the southern portion of the outline near southern Arkansas, and over Louisiana, in the earlier portion of the period. This however, is forecast to shift more into the NEWD extension of the slight risk area. Given an increase in CAPE values and lifted index values, along with moderately favorable shear, I cannot rule out the possibility of an isolated EF2 tornado, although I am not expecting strong tornadoes at the moment given the SRH and EHI values. The final analysis tomorrow should tell the story. A brief summary of the analysis still indicates veering winds with height. I am including forecast wind maps with wind direction drawn in for you to get and idea what is meant by a “veering” wind, giving an idea of the counter-clockwise motion from the upper atmosphere to the surface. These maps are representing more “speed shear” than “directional shear”. This mornings analysis still indicated rotation in the atmosphere with moderately favorable wind shear of 40 – 50 kts and effective shear of 30 – 40 kts. Storm mode could be more on the order of clustered to linear in nature. The following forecast parameters indicate a moderately unstable environment. I will be watching the situation over the next few days, as being this far out in the period, parameters can change and possibly become stronger. The following were the forecast parameters and indices analyzed this morning:
SBCAPE: 1500 – 2000 j/kg-1
MLCAPE: 1000 – 2000 j/kg-1
MUCAPE: 1000 – 2000 j/kg-1
SRH: 100 – 200 m2/s2
L. I.: -3 to -5
STP: 1 – 3
SCP: 2 to 6
EFF. SHEAR: 30 – 40 kts
0 -6 km SHEAR: 40 – 50 kts
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE: 6.0 – 6.5C
DEWPOINT: 64F – 68F
EHI: 1.5 – 2.0
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX: 50
K INDEX: 25 – 28
STP ( Significant Tornado Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A majority of significant tornadoes (EF2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.
SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH, based on Bunkers right supercell motion), most unstable parcel CAPE (muCAPE) and convective inhibition (muCIN), and effective bulk wind difference (EBWD). Each ingredient is normalized to supercell “threshold” values, and larger values of SCP denote greater “overlap” in the three supercell ingredients. Only positive values of SCP are displayed, which correspond to environments favoring right-moving (cyclonic) supercells.
The following are the SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) and STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) forecast maps from the NAM model
NAM SCP FORECAST
NAM STP FORECAST
The following maps from the SPC SREF model also indicate STP for 3:00 p.m. and 6:00 p.m. CST
The following are forecast wind maps from the NAM from 250 mb down to the surface:
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