Recent record heat begins to subside today as a storm system moves in to spread rain and snow across the region through the start of the weekend. Denver's forecast turns chilly and wet quickly.

Let's begin with the hourly planner for Denver and Colorado Springs, which both show a rapid increase in chances for rain/snow as well as a steady drop in temperatures after this afternoon's mild temperatures.

Before those cooler temperatures arrive Friday and precipitation chances ramp up along the urban corridor we'll see a heightened fire danger, with a Red Flag Warning in effect for all of eastern Colorado through 8pm this evening. The fire outlook from the SPC (below) shows elevated to critical fire danger in place today across the eastern half of the state, with gusty winds and low humidity values in place.

Precipitation chances will increase across the state from late tonight through Friday, coming to an end Saturday. The animation below shows where showers – both rain and snow – will be and when.

The probability for certain thresholds of total precipitation is shown here (a tool we developed for our Insiders and Pros). For example, Denver has a 95% chance of reaching at least a tenth of one inch.

We can look at Fort Collins and Colorado Springs probabilities too:

Of those three, Denver has the highest chance of reaching 0.25", which if verifies will be the first time the city has recorded that much water in a single day since mid-January!

The challenge will be the rain versus snow part of this equation. Coming down from record heat into a relatively mild spring shower event will create areas of slushy wet snow. The total possible precipitation is shown here first - total water here, so snow included.

Temperatures will not be overly supportive for a lot of snowfall accumulation in many cases, but based on the temperature profile and timing of the showers, here's a snowfall estimation.

The best chance of snow for lower elevations is Friday night and Saturday morning. Precipitation Friday afternoon will be in the form of rain for most of us. While models vary on when/where that changeover occurs, the earlier you see flakes Friday evening, the greater your chance of seeing a few inches pile up by Saturday morning.

Although I will wait until Friday morning to make sure this system still looks wet, but I am leaning toward seeding and fertilizing with this one, let us hope!