Disclaimer: This is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.
The following is my outlook forecast for the upcoming 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 11– 14
TOTAL HURRICANES : 5 – 6
MAJOR HURRICANES: 2 – 3
AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES: 7
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
SEASON TOTALS
NAMED STORMS: 2
HURRICANES: 0
MAJOR HURRICANES: 0
The following are the storm names for the 2023 hurricane season. As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:
Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harold Idalia Jose Katia
Lee Margot Nigel Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney
Good evening everyone!
I just wanted to touch base quickly…sorry I haven’t been here, but we have busy planning my Son’s memorial service for after our church service, which includes playing extra music in the band, so I have been cramming in songs with difficult drum beats. Once the memorial is finished on Sunday, I am going to try and get back to a regular forecast routine. I will be out of the office however from July 1 to July 10 on vacation, and plan to resume forecasting by the eve of the 10th.
In regard to Tropical Storm BRET. I know in my last forecast, I called for BRET to become a category one hurricane, as well as did the NHC. Two things, I don’t use their forecast to determine this, and only agree with the intensity forecast guidance, if forecast atmospheric conditions warrant. In this instance, I, nor the NHC botched the forecast. Once I saw the NHC had downgraded and kept BRET to only T.S. force, I quickly looked at some things. It turns out, the global modeling has not performed well as forecast conditions for BRETT. IF you remember from my last forecast, the favorable conditions that were forecast by the modeling, were supposed to last for 72 hours, based on the models forecast. Well, it turns out that conditions the next day from my forecast were not as fully favorable as was shown in the models. AND, conditions have begun to decline somewhat earlier than what was projected. Remember, I say all the time, my forecasts are only as accurate as the information I have at hand to analyze. This shows once again, how quickly conditions in the atmosphere can change.
I hope to get back to everyone soon.
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com
Have a blessed evening.
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
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