Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good evening everyone!

Based on analysis of  the most CURRENT forecast information from various global and climate models, it appears at the moment, the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season COULD be a “below average” season.  As always, this forecast is subject to change as forecast models will continue to update between now and June 01 on a monthly basis.  However, as it stands with the available information, it looks like we may experience a below average season.  I will reiterate once again, when I post my pre-season, and final seasonal forecasts, the totals are based on BONA FIDE storms, not some of the crap we saw named last season, and seasons previous.  I’m speaking of storms that meet the NWS/NHC criteria.  First, the system has to start out as a Tropical Disturbance, and as it strengthens, it becomes a depression, storm, and then hurricane:
Tropical Disturbance:
A discrete tropical weather system of apparently organized convection — generally 100 to 300 nmi in diameter — originating in the tropics or subtropics, having a non-frontal migratory character, and maintaining its identity for 24 hours or more. It may or may not be associated with a detectable perturbation of the wind field.

Please note some of the “key” features:  apparently organized convection, non-frontal migratory character, and maintaining its identity for 24 hours. Last season, and in some prior seasons, we saw naked swirls being called depressions, and all of a sudden, if a thunderstorm popped up, or an area of deep convection fired up, mainly on the edge of the center, it got named.  This does not meet the criteria of apparently organized deep convection, maintaining its identity for 24 hours.  They also named systems that had a frontal system still attached, or decaying front through the center of the system.  Keep this in mind if you are following this site and the active storms…look for the criteria.

The following is my PRE-SEASON outlook forecast for the upcoming 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season.  These totals are based on current climate model information of various parameters, and are almost sure to change, as climate modeling continues to update between now and June 01, 2024:
STORM W PRE-SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 20 – 22
TOTAL HURRICANES :      12 – 14
MAJOR HURRICANES:        6 – 8

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

Forecast parameters used in this synopsis include the following:
1.) CLIMATE MODEL ENSO PLUME FORECASTS
2.) SST ANOMALY FORECAST
3.) IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) FORECAST
4.) WIND SHEAR FORECAST
5.) ONI (Oceanic Nino Index) FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND TRENDS
6.) AVERAGING OF CHOSEN ANALOG YEARS BASED ON CPC ONI HISTORY
7.) Past and current MEI (Multivariate ENSO Index) information
Based on analysis of updated forecast ENSO plumes from global and climate modeling, and updated ONI forecast temperatures and trends, the majority of models seem to indicate the onset of moderate to strong La Nina conditions.  As a rule of thumb, the cooler NINO 3.4 becomes, the more favorable conditions over the Atlantic become for storm development, with the opposite effect of a warmer NINO 3.4 region.  By JUL- AUG time-frame, it appears we enter moderate to strong La Nina conditions.  Based on this, our season “may” start out “normal” in June through a portion of July, as there is generally a 2 month “lag time” between oceanic conditions, and atmospheric coupling, and how quickly the transition may take place.  The SOI or Southern Oscillation Index currently indicates the atmosphere is in a “neutral” ENSO state.  When this graph is in “positive” territory, it indicates La Nina conditions in the atmosphere, while “negative territory tends to indicate El Nino conditions in the atmosphere.  Typically, the lag time is about 2 months.  This means for the atmosphere to be declared in either El Nino or La Nina state, the graph has to be either +7 or -7 for at least 2 months.  Here is a little explanation from the BOM:
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +7 typically indicate La Niña, while sustained negative values below −7 typically indicate El Niño. Values between +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions.

You’ll note the SOI has begun to go negative again, however this should be temporary, as MSLP pressures have become higher over Darwin Australia, and lowered over Tahiti.

CLIMATE MODEL NINO PLUMES FORECAST GRAPHS (CLICK IMAGE FOR MORE MODELS):

CFSv2

BOM (AUSTRALIA BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY)

NASA GEOS

UKMET

ECMWF

IRI / CPC

The following SST anomalies forecast is from the CFSv2 climate model and NMME model, and currently indicates the forecast El Nino pattern:
CFSv2 SST ANOMALIES FORECAST MARCH – MAY

NMME SST ANOMALIES FORECAST JUNE – AUGUST (CLICK IMAGE FOR ALL MODELS)

CANSIPS SST ANOMALIES FORECAST JULY – SEPTEMBER

ECMWF SEASONAL ANOMALIES FORECAST